EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 1-5, 2012 Forecast
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Introduction: This is one of the most popular crosses. The primary reason why EUR/JPY has rallied 11 percent over the past 3.5 months is because of US growth – not many people realize that the price action of EUR/JPY is directly correlated with how the US economy is doing.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/JPY closed the week at 100.19 as the euro continues to decline against the safe haven JPY.
The euro received a mild boost and regained the 100.00 level versus the yen, after the latest stress test of Spanish banks showed the sector would need €59.3 billion in capital injections in the worse scenario, in line with expectations. EUR/JPY rose to the 100.45 zone after the results, extending its recovery from lows around 99.90. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 100.30 region, where it is virtually unchanged since opening.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Sep 28, 2012 |
100.19 |
100.23 |
100.67 |
99.93 |
-0.03% |
|
Sep 27, 2012 |
100.22 |
100.06 |
100.36 |
99.65 |
0.17% |
|
Sep 26, 2012 |
100.06 |
100.28 |
100.47 |
99.72 |
-0.22% |
|
Sep 25, 2012 |
100.28 |
100.78 |
101.05 |
100.17 |
-0.49% |
|
Sep 24, 2012 |
100.77 |
101.31 |
101.41 |
100.36 |
-0.53% |
However, the euro still faces risk of a Spanish downgrade by Moody’s which decision is still looming and it is likely to be announced later today or next week.
The Japanese government is trying everything in their power to reduced the strength of the yen, rumor has it that they are intervening in the currency markets, and also buying foreign bonds.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks
Major Economic Events for the week of September 24-28, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 25 |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
70.3 |
63.0 |
61.3 |
|
|
NZD |
Trade Balance |
-789M |
-606M |
97M |
|
Sep. 26 |
NOK |
Norwegian Unemployment Rate |
3.00% |
3.00% |
3.10% |
|
|
MXN |
Mexican Trade Balance |
-0.980B |
-0.556B |
-0.427B |
|
|
USD |
New Home Sales |
373K |
380K |
374K |
|
Sep. 27 |
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
-1.6% |
0.3% |
-1.3% |
|
|
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
-13.2% |
-5.0% |
3.3% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
359K |
378K |
385K |
|
|
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
1.3% |
1.7% |
1.7% |
|
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3271K |
3285K |
3275K |
|
|
USD |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
-2.6% |
-0.7% |
2.6% |
|
|
NZD |
Building Consents (MoM) |
1.9% |
3.0% |
2.0% |
|
Sep. 28 |
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) |
-0.4% |
-0.3% |
-0.5% |
|
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.3% |
-0.5% |
-1.0% |
|
|
JPY |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
1.8% |
-0.2% |
-0.8% |
|
|
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
|
|
USD |
Chicago PMI |
49.7 |
53.0 |
53.0 |
|
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
78.3 |
79.0 |
79.2 |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 0.8842 USD on Aug 01, 2011.
Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.
Lowest: 0.6562 USD on May 25, 2010.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Oct. 01 |
00:50 |
JPY |
-3 |
-1 |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
49.8 |
49.6 |
||
|
Oct. 02 |
05:30 |
AUD |
3.50% |
3.50% |
|
|
Oct. 03 |
02:30 |
AUD |
-0.70B |
-0.56B |
|
|
Oct. 04 |
02:30 |
AUD |
4.7% |
-17.3% |
|
|
02:30 |
AUD |
0.4% |
-0.8% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Oct 01 10:00 Norway
Oct 02 09:15 Austria
Oct 02 09:30 Belgium
Oct 02 09:30 UK
Oct 02 14:30 UK
Oct 03 09:10 Sweden
Oct 03 10:00 Norway
Oct 04 08:30 Spain
Oct 04 08:50 France
Oct 04 15:00 US
Oct 05 15:30 Italy
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