EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

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EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY closed Monday trade at 101.59 and ended Friday at 101.61 with several blips up and down throughout the week.

The direction of the single currency may well depend on the stock market’s movement as risk appetite rose despite worries over Spain’s path forward after another S&P ratings downgrade.  The Standard & Poor’s downgrade of Spain seemed to have had little impact, despite the risk of rendering the country’s debt burden unsustainable. You don’t have to be too pessimistic about the euro. While the downgrade could hit Madrid’s borrowing costs, the European Central Bank’s promise to buy up the debt of troubled economies if they agree to accept certain conditions.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Oct 12, 2012

101.61

101.41

101.91

101.24

0.20%

Oct 11, 2012

101.41

100.40

101.72

100.15

1.00%

Oct 10, 2012

100.40

100.61

101.17

100.29

-0.21%

Oct 09, 2012

100.61

101.59

101.84

100.49

-0.96%

Oct 08, 2012

101.59

102.45

102.45

101.13

-0.84%

The yen weakened for a second day against the euro as signs that the U.S. economy is stabilizing curbed demand for the safest assets. Japan’s currency slid against all of 16 major peers track by Bloomberg before data today that analysts said will show U.S. consumer confidence was near the strongest since May. The euro headed for a weekly drop against the dollar before figures that may show European industrial production shrank in August. Singapore’s dollar rose after the city state’s monetary authority kept policy unchanged.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks

Major Economic Events for the week of October 8-12, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 08 

NZD

NZIER Business Confidence 

8

 

-4

Oct. 09

JPY

Adjusted Current Account 

0.72T

0.52T

0.34T

 

AUD

NAB Business Confidence 

0

 

-3

Oct. 10 

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

1.00%

 

1.60%

 

USD

10-Year Note Auction 

1.700%

 

1.764%

 Oct. 11

AUD

Employment Change 

14.5K

3.8K

-9.1K

 

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

1.1%

0.7%

1.1%

 

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.2B

-44.0B

-42.5B

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

339K

370K

369K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3273K

3275K

3288K

Oct. 12

JPY

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

0.4%

0.5%

-1.9%

 

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

 

USD

PPI (MoM) 

1.1%

0.7%

1.7%

 

USD

PPI (YoY) 

2.1%

1.8%

2.0%

 

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.3%

2.5%

2.5%

 

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

83.1

78.0

78.3

 

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

75.0B

42.0B

-191.0B

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 134.38 JPY on Jan 11, 2010

Average: 111.13 JPY over this period.

Lowest: 94.12 JPY on July 24, 2012

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 15

01:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) 

 

-1.0%

 

05:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

 

-1.3%

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.5%

0.8%

 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-5.0

-10.4

 

22:45

NZD

CPI (QoQ) 

0.6%

0.3%

Oct. 16

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.6%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

1.7%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

1.9%

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

67.0B

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2%

-1.2%

Oct. 17

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.810M

0.801M

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.770M

0.750M

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 15 09:10 Slovakia 

Oct 15 10:00 Norway 

Oct 16 08:30 Spain 

Oct 16 09:10 Greece 

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 17 09:30 Germany 

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal 

Oct 17 10:00 Norway 

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain 

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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