EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 13, 2012 8:53 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
Add a comment

Category:

Fundamental Reports

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY closed Monday trade at 101.59 and ended Friday at 101.61 with several blips up and down throughout the week.

The direction of the single currency may well depend on the stock market’s movement as risk appetite rose despite worries over Spain’s path forward after another S&P ratings downgrade. The Standard & Poor’s downgrade of Spain seemed to have had little impact, despite the risk of rendering the country’s debt burden unsustainable. You don’t have to be too pessimistic about the euro. While the downgrade could hit Madrid’s borrowing costs, the European Central Bank’s promise to buy up the debt of troubled economies if they agree to accept certain conditions.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Oct 12, 2012	101.61	101.41	101.91	101.24	0.20%
Oct 11, 2012	101.41	100.40	101.72	100.15	1.00%
Oct 10, 2012	100.40	100.61	101.17	100.29	-0.21%
Oct 09, 2012	100.61	101.59	101.84	100.49	-0.96%
Oct 08, 2012	101.59	102.45	102.45	101.13	-0.84%

The yen weakened for a second day against the euro as signs that the U.S. economy is stabilizing curbed demand for the safest assets. Japan’s currency slid against all of 16 major peers track by Bloomberg before data today that analysts said will show U.S. consumer confidence was near the strongest since May. The euro headed for a weekly drop against the dollar before figures that may show European industrial production shrank in August. Singapore’s dollar rose after the city state’s monetary authority kept policy unchanged.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks

Major Economic Events for the week of October 8-12, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 08	NZD	NZIER Business Confidence	8		-4
Oct. 09	JPY	Adjusted Current Account	0.72T	0.52T	0.34T
	AUD	NAB Business Confidence	0		-3
Oct. 10	AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment	1.00%		1.60%
	USD	10-Year Note Auction	1.700%		1.764%
Oct. 11	AUD	Employment Change	14.5K	3.8K	-9.1K
	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	1.1%	0.7%	1.1%
	USD	Trade Balance	-44.2B	-44.0B	-42.5B
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	339K	370K	369K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3273K	3275K	3288K
Oct. 12	JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)	0.4%	0.5%	-1.9%
	USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%
	USD	PPI (MoM)	1.1%	0.7%	1.7%
	USD	PPI (YoY)	2.1%	1.8%	2.0%
	USD	Core PPI (YoY)	2.3%	2.5%	2.5%
	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	83.1	78.0	78.3
	USD	Federal Budget Balance	75.0B	42.0B	-191.0B

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 134.38 JPY on Jan 11, 2010

Average: 111.13 JPY over this period.

Lowest: 94.12 JPY on July 24, 2012

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 15	01:30	AUD	Home Loans (MoM)		-1.0%
	05:30	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)		-1.3%
	13:30	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.5%	0.8%
	13:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-5.0	-10.4
	22:45	NZD	CPI (QoQ)	0.6%	0.3%
Oct. 16	13:30	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.6%
	13:30	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.8%	1.7%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	2.0%	1.9%
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		67.0B
	14:15	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	-1.2%
Oct. 17	13:30	USD	Building Permits	0.810M	0.801M
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.770M	0.750M

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 15 09:10 Slovakia

Oct 15 10:00 Norway

Oct 16 08:30 Spain

Oct 16 09:10 Greece

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden

Oct 17 09:30 Germany

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal

Oct 17 10:00 Norway

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 08:30 Spain

Oct 18 08:50 France

Oct 18 09:30 UK

Oct 18 09:50 France

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 15:00 US

Oct 18 17:00 US

Want to read more articles like this one?

Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.

We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.

About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles