EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 22-26, 2012 Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 22-26, 2012 Forecast

EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 22-26, 2012 Forecast

Introduction: This is one of the most popular crosses. The primary reason why EUR/JPY has rallied 11 percent over the past 3.5 months is because of US growth – not many people realize that the price action of EUR/JPY is directly correlated with how the US economy is doing.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY climbed from its opening on Monday at 101.51 to close the week at 103.28. The JPY weakened all week as the BoJ meeting approached. The euro on the other hand strengthened on hopes for Spain and Greece. The EU Summit once again disappointed traders as the closing release said little of any action. This was followed by statements from the Prime Minister of Spain saying that at this time he would not be asking for a bailout. Dire warnings were also issued by Angela Merkel in regards to the banking supervisor program. Greece was given additional time, but riots in the streets of Athens said this was not enough to help the citizens.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Oct 19, 2012

103.28

103.66

103.80

103.15

-0.36%

Oct 18, 2012

103.66

103.67

104.14

103.30

-0.01%

Oct 17, 2012

103.67

103.35

103.75

102.92

0.30%

Oct 16, 2012

103.35

102.18

103.51

102.06

1.15%

Oct 15, 2012

102.18

101.51

102.29

101.04

0.65%

The euro fell on Friday on disappointment but was still able to pick up steam against the JPY. This week we will see retail sales and consumer confidence in Japan, which might dictate the actions of the BoJ.

Mr. Draghi will make an address, which might be harsh over the outcome of the EU Summit.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 15-19, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 15

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) 

1.8%

1.4%

-0.7%

 

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

1.9%

2.0%

 

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-3.6%

-3.6%

-3.5%

 

CNY

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

0.4%

0.6%

 

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.6%

-1.3%

-1.3%

 

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

1.1%

0.6%

1.0%

 

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

1.1%

0.8%

1.2%

 

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-6.2

-4.5

-10.4

 

NZD

CPI (QoQ) 

0.3%

0.6%

0.3%

 Oct. 16

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

 

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.6%

0.5%

0.6%

 

USD

CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

1.9%

1.7%

 

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.0%

1.9%

 

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

90.0B

45.3B

67.2B

 

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.4%

0.2%

-1.4%

 Oct. 17

USD

Building Permits 

0.894M

0.810M

0.801M

 

USD

Housing Starts 

0.872M

0.770M

0.758M

Oct. 18

AUD

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence 

-2.00

 

-2.00

 

CNY

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.5%

20.2%

20.2%

 

CNY

Chinese GDP (YoY) 

7.4%

7.4%

7.6%

 

CNY

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.2%

9.0%

8.9%

 

CNY

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

14.2%

13.2%

13.2%

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

388K

365K

342K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3252K

3275K

3281K

 

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

5.7

1.0

-1.9

Oct. 19 

USD

Existing Home Sales 

4.75M

4.75M

4.82M

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 134.38 JPY on Jan 11, 2010

Average: 111.13 JPY over this period.

Lowest: 94.12 JPY on July 24, 2012

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 24

01:30

AUD

CPI (QoQ) 

1.1%

0.5%

 

01:30

AUD

Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) 

0.6%

0.5%

 

02:45

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

 

47.90

 

15:00

USD

New Home Sales

385K

373K

 

21:00

NZD

Interest Rate Decision 

2.50%

2.50%

Oct. 25 

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance 

-825M

-789M

Oct. 26 

00:30

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.5%

-0.4%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 22 09:10 Norway 

Oct 23 08:30 Spain 

Oct 23 14:30 UK 

Oct 23 17:00 US 

Oct 24 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 24 09:30 Germany 

Oct 24 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 24 15:30 Italy  

Oct 24 16:30 US 

Oct 25 00:30 Japan 

Oct 25 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 25 15:30 Italy  

Oct 25 17:00 US 

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.