EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 8-12, 2012 Forecast

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Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY was strong after the ECB meeting and press conference, as Mr. Draghi once again rescued and pledged to support the euro. He said all plans of the ECB were moving forward and the OMT program was ready to get into action.

On Thursday the Bank of Japan kept its benchmark uncollateralized overnight call rate at between zero and 0.1 percent and held its asset purchase program, though it flagged a weaker growth outlook for the world’s third-biggest economy. The bank expanded its money printing program by 10 trillion yen in September.

The JPY remained strong but after markets moved to a risk on attitude with a strong US jobs report, the yen declined while the euro remained strong. The pair closed the week close to their weekly high at 102.56

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Oct 05, 2012

102.56

102.17

102.80

101.86

0.38%

Oct 04, 2012

102.17

101.38

102.25

101.31

0.78%

Oct 03, 2012

101.38

100.99

101.47

100.72

0.38%

Oct 02, 2012

101.00

100.59

101.20

100.49

0.40%

Oct 01, 2012

100.59

99.86

101.03

99.79

0.75%

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 1-5 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 01

JPY

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 

-3

-3 

-1 

 

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

51.5

49.7 

49.6 

 Oct. 02

AUD

Interest Rate Decision 

3.25%

3.50% 

3.50% 

Oct. 03

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

-5.3%

 

-5.6% 

 

AUD

Trade Balance 

-2.03B

-0.70B 

-1.53B 

 

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

162K

143K 

189K 

 

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

55.1

53.2 

53.7 

Oct. 04

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) 

6.4%

4.7% 

-21.2% 

 

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.2%

0.4% 

-0.8% 

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

367K

370K 

363K 

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3281K

3271K 

3281K 

Oct. 05

JPY

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

0.10% 

0.10% 

 

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.3%

0.2% 

0.0% 

 

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

114K

113K 

142K 

 

USD

Unemployment Rate 

7.8%

8.2% 

8.1% 

 

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

34.4 

34.4 

 

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

104K

130K 

97K 

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 134.38 JPY on Jan 11, 2010

Average: 111.13 JPY over this period.

Lowest: 94.12 JPY on July 24, 2012

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 08

22:00

NZD

NZIER Business Confidence 

 

-4

Oct. 09

01:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence 

 

-2

Oct. 11

01:30

AUD

Employment Change 

3.8K

-8.8K

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Oct 08 09:10 Norway 

Oct 08 15:30 Italy  

Oct 09 08:30 Holland 

Oct 09 09:30 UK 

Oct 09 14:30 UK 

Oct 09 17:00 US 

Oct 10 09:10 Italy  

Oct 10 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 10 09:30 Germany 

Oct 10 09:30 Swiss 

Oct 10 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 10 17:00 US 

Oct 11 09:10 Italy  

Oct 11 09:10 Sweden 

 

 

 

 

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