EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 10-14, 2012, Forecast

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Introduction: This is one of the most popular crosses. The primary reason why EUR/JPY has rallied 11 percent over the past 3.5 months is because of US growth – not many people realize that the price action of EUR/JPY is directly correlated with how the US economy is doing.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY closed the week over 100.00 touching as high as 100.43 on positive sentiment from the eurozone after the introduction of the new ECB Outright Monetary Transaction program to help ailing EU nations. Also on Friday, the poor print of the US nonfarm data increased the possibility for stimulus which helped pushed the euro to trade over 1.28 a multi month high.

The JPY continues to deal with a lagging economy and internal turmoil and a lack of direct assistance or plan from the BoJ. As risk has left the markets so has the strength of the JPY

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Sep 07, 2012

100.29

99.64

100.43

99.61

0.64%

Sep 06, 2012

99.65

98.82

99.80

98.79

0.84%

Sep 05, 2012

98.82

98.37

98.91

97.99

0.46%

Sep 04, 2012

98.37

98.61

99.02

98.29

-0.24%

Sep 03, 2012

98.60

98.46

98.70

98.23

0.15%

 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks

Major Economic Events for the week of September 3-7, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 03

00:50

JPY

Capital Spending 

7.70%

8.90%

3.30%

 

02:30

AUD

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) 

-0.7%

1.0%

-3.7%

 

02:30

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.8%

0.2%

1.2%

Sep. 04

02:30

AUD

Current Account 

-11.8B

-12.2B

-13.0B

 

05:30

AUD

Interest Rate Decision 

3.50%

3.50%

3.50%

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

49.6

50.0

49.8

Sep. 05

02:30

AUD

GDP (QoQ) 

0.6%

0.7%

1.4%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

2.2%

1.8%

1.6%

 

13:30

USD

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

1.5%

1.5%

1.7%

 Sep. 06

02:30

AUD

Employment Change 

-8.8K

5.0K

11.7K

 

02:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate 

5.1%

5.3%

5.2%

 

13:15

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

201K

140K

173K

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

365K

370K

377K

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3322K

3315K

3328K

 

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

53.7

52.5

52.6

Sep. 07

02:30

AUD

Trade Balance 

-0.56B

-0.30B

-0.23B

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.0%

0.2%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

96K

125K

141K

 

13:30

USD

Unemployment Rate 

8.1%

8.3%

8.3%

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4

34.5

34.4

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

103K

138K

162K

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 134.38 JPY on Jan 11, 2010

Average: 111.13 JPY over this period.

Lowest: 94.12 JPY on July 24, 2012

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 10

00:50

JPY

GDP (QoQ) 

0.3% 

0.3% 

 

02:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) 

 

1.3% 

Sep. 11

00:50

JPY

BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions 

 

-5.7 

 

02:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence 

 

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.2B 

-42.9B 

Sep. 12 

01:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

 

-2.50% 

 

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

1.3% 

-0.6% 

 

22:00

NZD

Interest Rate Decision 

2.50% 

2.50% 

Sep. 14

05:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

 

-1.2%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 10 09:30 Germany 

Sep 10 15:30 Italy  

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30 Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US 

Sep 13 00:30 Japan 

Sep 13 09:10 Italy  

Sep 13 09:30 UK 

Sep 13 15:00 US 

Sep 13 17:00 US 

Sep 14 10:00 Belgium

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