EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 10-14, 2012, Forecast

Posted September 08, 2012 7:50 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Introduction: This is one of the most popular crosses. The primary reason why EUR/JPY has rallied 11 percent over the past 3.5 months is because of US growth – not many people realize that the price action of EUR/JPY is directly correlated with how the US economy is doing.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY closed the week over 100.00 touching as high as 100.43 on positive sentiment from the eurozone after the introduction of the new ECB Outright Monetary Transaction program to help ailing EU nations. Also on Friday, the poor print of the US nonfarm data increased the possibility for stimulus which helped pushed the euro to trade over 1.28 a multi month high.

The JPY continues to deal with a lagging economy and internal turmoil and a lack of direct assistance or plan from the BoJ. As risk has left the markets so has the strength of the JPY

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Sep 07, 2012	100.29	99.64	100.43	99.61	0.64%
Sep 06, 2012	99.65	98.82	99.80	98.79	0.84%
Sep 05, 2012	98.82	98.37	98.91	97.99	0.46%
Sep 04, 2012	98.37	98.61	99.02	98.29	-0.24%
Sep 03, 2012	98.60	98.46	98.70	98.23	0.15%

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks

Major Economic Events for the week of September 3-7, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 03	00:50	JPY	Capital Spending	7.70%	8.90%	3.30%
	02:30	AUD	Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ)	-0.7%	1.0%	-3.7%
	02:30	AUD	Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.8%	0.2%	1.2%
Sep. 04	02:30	AUD	Current Account	-11.8B	-12.2B	-13.0B
	05:30	AUD	Interest Rate Decision	3.50%	3.50%	3.50%
	15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	49.6	50.0	49.8
Sep. 05	02:30	AUD	GDP (QoQ)	0.6%	0.7%	1.4%
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)	2.2%	1.8%	1.6%
	13:30	USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)	1.5%	1.5%	1.7%
Sep. 06	02:30	AUD	Employment Change	-8.8K	5.0K	11.7K
	02:30	AUD	Unemployment Rate	5.1%	5.3%	5.2%
	13:15	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	201K	140K	173K
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	365K	370K	377K
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3322K	3315K	3328K
	15:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	53.7	52.5	52.6
Sep. 07	02:30	AUD	Trade Balance	-0.56B	-0.30B	-0.23B
	13:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	96K	125K	141K
	13:30	USD	Unemployment Rate	8.1%	8.3%	8.3%
	13:30	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.4	34.5	34.4
	13:30	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	103K	138K	162K

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 134.38 JPY on Jan 11, 2010

Average: 111.13 JPY over this period.

Lowest: 94.12 JPY on July 24, 2012

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 10	00:50	JPY	GDP (QoQ)	0.3%	0.3%
	02:30	AUD	Home Loans (MoM)		1.3%
Sep. 11	00:50	JPY	BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions		-5.7
	02:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence		4
	13:30	USD	Trade Balance	-44.2B	-42.9B
Sep. 12	01:30	AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment		-2.50%
	13:30	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	1.3%	-0.6%
	22:00	NZD	Interest Rate Decision	2.50%	2.50%
Sep. 14	05:30	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)		-1.2%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Sep 10 09:30 Germany

Sep 10 15:30 Italy

Sep 11 00:30 Japan

Sep 11 08:30 Holland

Sep 11 09:10 Greece

Sep 11 09:30 UK

Sep 11 14:30 UK

Sep 11 17:00 US

Sep 12 09:10 Italy

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden

Sep 12 09:30 Germany

Sep 12 09:30 Swiss

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden

Sep 12 17:00 US

Sep 13 00:30 Japan

Sep 13 09:10 Italy

Sep 13 09:30 UK

Sep 13 15:00 US

Sep 13 17:00 US

Sep 14 10:00 Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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