EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 17-21, 2012, Forecast

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Introduction: This is one of the most popular crosses. The primary reason why EUR/JPY has rallied 11 percent over the past 3.5 months is because of US growth – not many people realize that the price action of EUR/JPY is directly correlated with how the US economy is doing.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY followed most of the currencies as the euro gained huge momentum this week, with the ECB announcing its new OMT program and the German Courts upholding the legality of the EFSF and ESM the euro has been unstoppable. On Thursday the news from the FOMC and its new QE3 helped push the euro to new highs. The pair closed the week at 1.0295

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Sep 14, 2012

102.95

100.88

103.01

100.75

2.04%

Sep 13, 2012

100.90

100.41

100.91

99.55

0.48%

Sep 12, 2012

100.42

99.94

100.64

99.77

0.48%

Sep 11, 2012

99.94

99.84

100.24

99.53

0.10%

Sep 10, 2012

99.84

100.11

100.23

99.83

-0.26%

 

Whereas the JPY was weak most of the last few days on poor eco data and political turmoil as traders listened to the ongoing rhetoric from the BoJ and the MoF without any action.

Traders are hoping that the BoJ will take an aggressive stance this week at their meeting on September 19th and introduce some new programs to help the currency and the weakened economy.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks

Major Economic Events for the week of September 10-14, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and US

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 10

00:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account 

0.34T

0.39T 

0.77T 

 

00:50

JPY

GDP (QoQ) 

0.2%

0.3% 

0.3% 

 

02:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) 

-1.0%

0.1% 

1.0% 

Sep. 11

00:50

JPY

BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions 

2.5

-6.1 

-5.7 

 

02:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence 

-2

 

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-42.0B

-44.0B 

-41.9B 

 Sep. 12

00:50

JPY

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

-0.8%

-0.4% 

0.2% 

 

01:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

1.60%

 

-2.50% 

 

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.7%

1.4% 

-0.7% 

 

18:00

USD

10-Year Note Auction 

1.764%

 

1.680% 

 

22:00

NZD

Interest Rate Decision 

2.50%

2.50% 

2.50% 

 Sep. 13

13:30

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2% 

0.4% 

 

13:30

USD

PPI (MoM) 

1.7%

1.1% 

0.3% 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

382K

370K 

367K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3283K

3318K 

3332K 

 

13:30

USD

PPI (YoY) 

2.0%

1.4% 

0.5% 

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.5%

2.6% 

2.5% 

 

17:30

USD

Interest Rate Decision 

0.25%

0.25% 

0.25% 

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-191.0B

-155.0B 

-69.6B 

Sep. 14

05:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.0%

-1.2% 

-1.2% 

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.8%

0.6% 

0.8% 

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.6%

0.5% 

0.0% 

 

13:30

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

0.7% 

0.6% 

 

13:30

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

1.7% 

1.4% 

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

2.0% 

2.1% 

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.2%

0.2% 

0.5% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

79.2

74.0 

74.3 

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 134.38 JPY on Jan 11, 2010

Average: 111.13 JPY over this period.

Lowest: 94.12 JPY on July 24, 2012

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 17

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-2.0 

-5.8 

Sep. 18 

13:30

USD

Current Account 

-126.0B 

-137.3B 

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

9.3B 

 

23:45

NZD

Current Account 

-1.64B 

-1.31B 

Sep. 19 

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.800M 

0.811M 

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.765M 

0.746M 

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales 

4.56M 

4.47M 

 

23:45

NZD

GDP (QoQ) 

0.3% 

1.1% 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 17 09:10 Slovakia

Sep 17 10:00 Norway 

Sep 18 08:30 Spain 

Sep 18 09:10 Greece 

Sep 18 09:30 Belgium 

Sep 19 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 19 09:30 Germany 

Sep 19 09:30 Portugal 

Sep 19 10:00 Norway 

Sep 20 08:30 Spain 

Sep 20 08:50 France 

Sep 20 09:30 UK 

Sep 20 09:50 France 

Sep 20 15:00 US 

Sep 20 17:00 US 

Sep 21 15:30 Italy  

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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