EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 17-21, 2012, Forecast

Posted September 15, 2012 6:58 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Introduction: This is one of the most popular crosses. The primary reason why EUR/JPY has rallied 11 percent over the past 3.5 months is because of US growth – not many people realize that the price action of EUR/JPY is directly correlated with how the US economy is doing.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY followed most of the currencies as the euro gained huge momentum this week, with the ECB announcing its new OMT program and the German Courts upholding the legality of the EFSF and ESM the euro has been unstoppable. On Thursday the news from the FOMC and its new QE3 helped push the euro to new highs. The pair closed the week at 1.0295

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Sep 14, 2012	102.95	100.88	103.01	100.75	2.04%
Sep 13, 2012	100.90	100.41	100.91	99.55	0.48%
Sep 12, 2012	100.42	99.94	100.64	99.77	0.48%
Sep 11, 2012	99.94	99.84	100.24	99.53	0.10%
Sep 10, 2012	99.84	100.11	100.23	99.83	-0.26%

Whereas the JPY was weak most of the last few days on poor eco data and political turmoil as traders listened to the ongoing rhetoric from the BoJ and the MoF without any action.

Traders are hoping that the BoJ will take an aggressive stance this week at their meeting on September 19th and introduce some new programs to help the currency and the weakened economy.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks

Major Economic Events for the week of September 10-14, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and US

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 10	00:50	JPY	Adjusted Current Account	0.34T	0.39T	0.77T
	00:50	JPY	GDP (QoQ)	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%
	02:30	AUD	Home Loans (MoM)	-1.0%	0.1%	1.0%
Sep. 11	00:50	JPY	BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions	2.5	-6.1	-5.7
	02:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence	-2		3
	13:30	USD	Trade Balance	-42.0B	-44.0B	-41.9B
Sep. 12	00:50	JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)	-0.8%	-0.4%	0.2%
	01:30	AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment	1.60%		-2.50%
	13:30	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	0.7%	1.4%	-0.7%
	18:00	USD	10-Year Note Auction	1.764%		1.680%
	22:00	NZD	Interest Rate Decision	2.50%	2.50%	2.50%
Sep. 13	13:30	USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%
	13:30	USD	PPI (MoM)	1.7%	1.1%	0.3%
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	382K	370K	367K
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3283K	3318K	3332K
	13:30	USD	PPI (YoY)	2.0%	1.4%	0.5%
	13:30	USD	Core PPI (YoY)	2.5%	2.6%	2.5%
	17:30	USD	Interest Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
	19:00	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-191.0B	-155.0B	-69.6B
Sep. 14	05:30	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.0%	-1.2%	-1.2%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.8%	0.6%	0.8%
	13:30	USD	CPI (MoM)	0.6%	0.5%	0.0%
	13:30	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.9%	0.7%	0.6%
	13:30	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.7%	1.7%	1.4%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	1.9%	2.0%	2.1%
	14:15	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.2%	0.2%	0.5%
	14:55	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	79.2	74.0	74.3

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 134.38 JPY on Jan 11, 2010

Average: 111.13 JPY over this period.

Lowest: 94.12 JPY on July 24, 2012

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 17	13:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-2.0	-5.8
Sep. 18	13:30	USD	Current Account	-126.0B	-137.3B
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		9.3B
	23:45	NZD	Current Account	-1.64B	-1.31B
Sep. 19	13:30	USD	Building Permits	0.800M	0.811M
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.765M	0.746M
	15:00	USD	Existing Home Sales	4.56M	4.47M
	23:45	NZD	GDP (QoQ)	0.3%	1.1%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Sep 17 09:10 Slovakia

Sep 17 10:00 Norway

Sep 18 08:30 Spain

Sep 18 09:10 Greece

Sep 18 09:30 Belgium

Sep 19 09:10 Sweden

Sep 19 09:30 Germany

Sep 19 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 10:00 Norway

Sep 20 08:30 Spain

Sep 20 08:50 France

Sep 20 09:30 UK

Sep 20 09:50 France

Sep 20 15:00 US

Sep 20 17:00 US

Sep 21 15:30 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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