EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis August 10, 2012, Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD dropped to 1.2281 as the elation over the ECB diminished and eco data and negative vibes from Spain and Greece returned to haunt the markets.

 EUR is weak, having lost 0.4% since yesterday’s close and flirting with a break below psychological support at 1.2300.News flow from Europe has been relatively quiet over the last 12‐hours; however on balance news flow has generally been negative for EUR since the beginning of the week.

In the early morning China released some eco data that was fairly positive, with CPI falling and PPI showing a slight increase, but as the day progressed and China continued its July releases the data became extremely negative. Retails sales and Industrial Production both reported well under forecast, by the end of the day, investors had turned their hopes from a soft landing to monetary stimulus from the PBoC.

The US trade balance printed well above forecast whereas Canada and the UK disappointed markets.

The US unemployment release was a mixed bag.

Traders will watch the balance of the Chinese data tomorrow as well as for news flow from Spain.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data August 9, 2012 actual v. forecast

Aug. 09

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Employment Change 

14.0K

 

10.0K 

 

-28.3K 

   

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.2%

 

5.3% 

 

5.3% 

   

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

 

1.7% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-2.9%

 

-2.5% 

 

-2.1% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

05:00

 

JPY

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.4%

 

20.5% 

 

20.4% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.2%

 

9.8% 

 

9.5% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

13.1%

 

13.7% 

 

13.7% 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-10.1B

 

-8.6B 

 

-8.4B 

 

 

 

13:15

 

CAD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

208.5K

 

213.0K 

 

222.1K 

   

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-1.8B

 

-1.0B 

 

-0.9B 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-42.9B

 

-47.5B 

 

-48.0B 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

361K

 

370K 

 

367K 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3332K

 

3280K 

 

3279K 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 10

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

-1.9%

 

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.2%

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-2.7%

 

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-59.7B

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 10  10:00  Belgium

Aug 13  09:10  Italy

Aug 13  09:10  Norway

Aug 13  09:30  Germany

Aug 14  09:10  Greece 

Aug 14  09:10  Italy

Aug 14  09:30  Belgium

Aug 14  14:30  UK

Aug 15  09:10  Sweden

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.