EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis August 17, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 16, 2012 17:02 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.2361 gaining on the weakness of the US dollar, the Dollar make a complete U turn after US data began to be released today. The day started out with positive data with building permits reporting well above forecast, but soon turned negative and remained that way, with housing starts below forecast, manufacturing sales below forecast, jobless claims rising and the Philly Fed disappointing.

The excitement for EUR has been against the crosses as oppose to the USD until late in the day.EURCAD has reached another record low; while EURAUD, EURNOK, EURSEK are flirting with record lows. There was limited data today, with Eurozone CPI coming in as expected (core rose 1.7%y/y and headline was steady at 2.4%y/y). However, even as developments in Europe seem quiet the undercurrents are slowly building. French President, Hollande will meet Chancellor Merkel in Berlin on August 23rd, followed by Greek Prime Minister Samaras on August 25th. In addition, even as Spanish yields have been drifting lower, there is ongoing speculation over if and when Spain will request aid. With event risk extremely high in the first two weeks of September, EUR is likely to remain somewhat range bound closing out August.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data August 16, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug. 16

KRW

South Korean Unemployment Rate

3.1%

3.3%

3.2%

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM)

0.3%

-0.1%

0.8%

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY)

2.8%

1.4%

2.6%

EUR

CPI (YoY)

2.4%

2.4%

EUR

Core CPI (YoY)

1.7%

1.9%

1.6%

USD

Building Permits

0.812M

0.770M

0.760M

CAD

Foreign Securities Purchases

-7.89B

10.67B

26.11B

USD

Housing Starts

0.746M

0.757M

0.754M

CAD

Manufacturing Sales (MoM)

-0.40%

0.40%

-0.40%

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

366K

365K

364K

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims

3305K

3300K

3336K

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

-7.1

-5.0

-12.9

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Aug 17	6:00	EUR	German PPI m/m	0.4%	-0.4%
	8:00	EUR	Current Account	7.8B	10.9B
	13:55	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	72.5	72.3

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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