EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis August 17, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.2361 gaining on the weakness of the US dollar, the Dollar make a complete U turn after US data began to be released today. The day started out with positive data with building permits reporting well above forecast, but soon turned negative and remained that way, with housing starts below forecast, manufacturing sales below forecast, jobless claims rising and the Philly Fed disappointing.

The excitement for EUR has been against the crosses as oppose to the USD until late in the day.EURCAD has reached another record low; while EURAUD, EURNOK, EURSEK are flirting with record lows. There was limited data today, with Eurozone CPI coming in as expected (core rose 1.7%y/y and headline was steady at 2.4%y/y). However, even as developments in Europe seem quiet the undercurrents are slowly building. French President, Hollande will meet Chancellor Merkel in Berlin on August 23rd, followed by Greek Prime Minister Samaras on August 25th. In addition, even as Spanish yields have been drifting lower, there is ongoing speculation over if and when Spain will request aid. With event risk extremely high in the first two weeks of September, EUR is likely to remain somewhat range bound closing out August.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data August 16, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 16

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.3% 

 

3.2% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.8% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.8%

 

1.4% 

 

2.6% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

 

2.4% 

 

2.4% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.9% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Building Permits 

0.812M

 

0.770M 

 

0.760M 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

-7.89B

 

10.67B 

 

26.11B 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.746M

 

0.757M 

 

0.754M 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

-0.40%

 

0.40% 

 

-0.40% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

366K

 

365K 

 

364K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3305K

 

3300K 

 

3336K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

-7.1

 

-5.0 

 

-12.9 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event  

Forecast

Previous

Aug 17

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

0.4%

-0.4%

 

8:00

EUR

Current Account

7.8B

10.9B

 

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.5

72.3

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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