EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis August 21, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is fluctuating but staying close to even, at present it is trading at 1.2314 on denials of rumors of the ECB bond cap program.

There is not much to look for in terms of economic data this week with August stretching into a 5 week period this is the middle week with end of the month data coming next week. The marquee event this week will be initial jobless claims on Thursday followed by durable goods on Friday.

Housing data include existing and new home sales on Wednesday and Thursday. We also get the FHFA home price report, although this gets less attention than the competing measures.

There will be Fed news, with speeches by two regional bank presidents (Lockhart and Evans) on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. There has been some market reaction to various Fed commentary in recent weeks, mostly for hints of another round of QE. 

Angela Merkel, will have meetings with leaders from Greece, France, and the head of the eurozone finance ministers. Nothing definite will be decided, but everyone is interested in the German position toward both bailouts and ECB bond purchases. The excitement this week could possibly be the Spanish bailout.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data August 20, 2012 actual v. forecast

A very lite day

Aug. 16 

 

NZD

 

 

PPI Input (QoQ) 

0.6%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

Aug. 17

 

USD

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

73.6

 

72.4 

 

72.3 

 

 

Aug. 20

  

GBP

 

 

 

Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) 

-2.4%

 

 

 

-1.7% 

 

                 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

        Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 22

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.37M

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-3.7M

 

18:00

USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Aug 23

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

2.25B

 

7:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

43.4

 

7:00

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

50.0

 

7:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

43.0

 

7:30

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

50.3

 

8:00

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

44.0

 

8:00

EUR

Flash Services PMI

47.9

 

8:30

GBP

BBA Mortgage Approvals

26.3K

 

10:00

GBP

CBI Realized Sales

11

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

366K

 

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

51.4

 

14:00

USD

New Home Sales

350K

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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