EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis August 21, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 20, 2012 14:16 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is fluctuating but staying close to even, at present it is trading at 1.2314 on denials of rumors of the ECB bond cap program.

There is not much to look for in terms of economic data this week with August stretching into a 5 week period this is the middle week with end of the month data coming next week. The marquee event this week will be initial jobless claims on Thursday followed by durable goods on Friday.

Housing data include existing and new home sales on Wednesday and Thursday. We also get the FHFA home price report, although this gets less attention than the competing measures.

There will be Fed news, with speeches by two regional bank presidents (Lockhart and Evans) on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. There has been some market reaction to various Fed commentary in recent weeks, mostly for hints of another round of QE.

Angela Merkel, will have meetings with leaders from Greece, France, and the head of the eurozone finance ministers. Nothing definite will be decided, but everyone is interested in the German position toward both bailouts and ECB bond purchases. The excitement this week could possibly be the Spanish bailout.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data August 20, 2012 actual v. forecast

A very lite day

Aug. 16

NZD

PPI Input (QoQ)

0.6%

-0.2%

0.3%

Aug. 17

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment

73.6

72.4

72.3

Aug. 20

GBP

Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

-2.4%

-1.7%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Previous
Aug 22	14:00	USD	Existing Home Sales	4.37M
	14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories	-3.7M
	18:00	USD	FOMC Meeting Minutes
Aug 23	6:00	CHF	Trade Balance	2.25B
	7:00	EUR	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	43.4
	7:00	EUR	French Flash Services PMI	50.0
	7:30	EUR	German Flash Manufacturing PMI	43.0
	7:30	EUR	German Flash Services PMI	50.3
	8:00	EUR	Flash Manufacturing PMI	44.0
	8:00	EUR	Flash Services PMI	47.9
	8:30	GBP	BBA Mortgage Approvals	26.3K
	10:00	GBP	CBI Realized Sales	11
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	366K
	13:00	USD	Flash Manufacturing PMI	51.4
	14:00	USD	New Home Sales	350K

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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