EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis August 28, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD saw very little activity today to trade at 1.2515. The only eco data releases of importance was the German business climate data. Germany’s Ifo survey for August showed small declines on the margin (the survey fell from a reading of 102.3 to 103.2), but the concern is that its key overall ‘business climate index’ is now at the lowest point that it has seen during the Eurozone crisis cycle. The IFO survey has been less volatile over the past number of months than a variety of other German indicators, so the survey’s drop-off doesn’t seem to be just another sign that respondents have been reading pessimistic news reports. Both the current conditions metric and the expectations metric of the survey’s index showed moderate declines.

Markets are expected to be quiet all week, as investors prepare for Mr. Bernanke’s address in Jackson Hole on August 31.

There is little expected in eco data or news, unless Spain, Greece or China hit the headlines.

Most traders are on vacation, getting kids back to school or in the US preparing for the one last summer hoorah with the Labor Holiday hitting the end of this week.

Market sentiments were buoyed on fresh optimism that key central banks in both the U.S and Europe could plan out monetary measures to bring back their respective economies back on track.  For the day, there are no major data slated for release from the U.S.  This week we will see the U.S consumer confidence and Personal spending data as these figures substantiate a significant proportion of the U.S growth. With Tropical storm approaching the Gulf of Mexico and fire at Venezuelan crude facility, oil prices could be the talking point and are most likely to lead the pack. LME remains closed today on account of Summer Bank Holiday.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data August 27, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 27

 

SEK

 

 

 

Swedish Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.30%

 

0.20% 

 

-0.30% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

102.3

 

102.6 

 

103.2 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Current Assessment 

111.2

 

110.8 

 

111.5 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Business Expectations 

94.2

 

95.0 

 

95.5 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Previous

Aug. 28

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9 

 

15:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence 

65.9 

Aug. 29

01:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.4% 

 

01:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

1.7% 

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

28/8  10:30  Spain

28/8  11:00  Italy 

28/8  19:00  US 

29/8  11:00  Italy 

29/8  19:00  US 

30/8  05:35  Japan

30/8  11:00  Italy 

30/8  19:00  US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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