EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis August 7, 2012, Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.2387 holding pretty steady after its march skyward at the end of last week gaining over .08%.

Today there is a lot happening the eurozone, starting with an interview released on Sunday in which Prime Minister Monti from Italy is quoted as saying that tension sparked by the Euro-zone crisis have already turned countries against each other and must not be allowed to rip Europe apart adding that Italy needs moral support from Germany and not its cash.

On Friday experts started to recognize that the ECB might have acted in a clever way as there is no giving without taking, an opinion which prevailed at the end of the day. “This ensures that reform efforts do not wane”, a trader said in a comment. Draghi did signal that there was a real commitment existing for appropriate interventions, but the governments of the troubled states would have to agree to the EFSF-/ESM regulation in return.

As a result Spanish and Italian bonds declined on Friday. The US labor data revealed to be better than expected, which fuelled the stock markets. This finally had a suction effect on the Euro as well. But there was another reason contributing to this development, namely the rumors according to which the government in Spain would officially request for EU bailout on Friday, which finally did not happen.

Representatives of the troika, consisting of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund, met with Greek Finance Minister in Athens at the conclusion more than a week of meetings. The outcome will determine whether Greece continues receiving funds from the country’s 240 billion euros of rescue package.

Over the weekend, German Foreign Minister, Guido Westerwelle, warned that Europe should not rely too heavily on Germany to fix the Euro-zone crisis, and further added that coping with the debt crisis was a ‘shared task’ and that ‘everyone must pull together to find a solution’. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data August 6, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Aug. 06

 

AUD

 

 

 

MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) 

0.2%

 

 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

TWD

 

 

 

Taiwanese CPI (YoY) 

2.46%

 

2.02% 

 

1.77% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) 

-0.80%

 

 

 

-1.10% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.6%

 

-0.5% 

0.8%  

                               

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 7

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

364.9B

 

7:15

CHF

CPI m/m

-0.3%

 

8:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production m/m

0.8%

 

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

1.2%

 

10:00

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

0.6%

 

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

-0.2%

Aug 8

5:45

CHF

SECO Consumer Climate

-8

 

9:30

GBP

BOE Inflation Report

 
 

10:00

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

1.6%

 

12:30

USD

Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q

-0.9%

 

12:30

USD

Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q

1.3%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Aug 9

8:00

EUR

ECB Monthly Bulletin

 
 

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance

-8.4B

 

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

-48.7B

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Aug 10

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

-1.9%

 

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.2%

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-2.7%

 

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-59.7B

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 07  00:30  Japan

Aug 07  09:15  Austria

Aug 07  14:30  UK

Aug 07  17:00  US

Aug 08  09:30  Germany

Aug 08  10:00  Norway

Aug 08  15:30  Italy

Aug 08  17:00  US

Aug 09  15:30  Italy

Aug 09  17:00  US

Aug 10  10:00  Belgium

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.