EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis August 8, 2012, Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD continued to gather momentum trading at 1.2430. Market mood was positive again today extending recent gains on escalating hopes that the European Central Bank (ECB) could buy bonds of debt ridden economies of Spain and Italy to ease debt contagion in the region. Looking into the evening session, no major data are slated for release from the U.S and therefore, market moves are likely to remain docile. With the week thin on major economic data from the U.S, all eyes are pinned on the series of economic releases from the world’s second largest economy China, and any uncanny figures could have a significant downside bearing on the market moves. With yields on Spanish and Italian bonds still hovering near unacceptable levels, market watchers would be keenly following bond auctions in the respective countries to take a stance on the situation in Europe.

There is virtually no eco data due in the US and very little is expected on the US side to support the USD, although markets did read into Ben Bernanke’s speech yesterday, the possibility of some additional QE.

Markets are pretty quiet globally as well, with equities in Europe and Asia subdued although there has been a decent ongoing rally in Italy and Spain. US 10-year yields are grinding higher for a second consecutive session The DXY is slightly lower with the euro trading above 1.24 even as we received fairly weak economic data from key European countries today.

Italy’s GDP came in at -0.7% q/q during Q2 2012, slightly less bad than markets had anticipated (the consensus among forecasters polled by Bloomberg was for a -0.8% q/q decline) but still a slow pace overall and the fourth consecutive negative quarter-on-quarter outcome. Don’t look now, but Italy’s GDP has contracted in quarter-on-quarter terms for 10 of the past 18 quarters dating back to Q1 2008

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data August 7, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 07

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

3.50%

 

3.50% 

 

3.50% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Rate Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

2.9%

 

2.9% 

 

2.9% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.5%

 

-0.6% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-2.5%

 

-3.4% 

 

1.0% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

-2.9%

 

-4.1% 

 

1.2% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-4.3%

 

-5.0% 

 

-1.8% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

-1.7%

 

-1.0% 

 

0.7% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Building Permits (MoM) 

-2.5%

 

-4.0% 

 

7.1% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 8

5:45

CHF

SECO Consumer Climate

-8

 

9:30

GBP

BOE Inflation Report

 
 

10:00

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

1.6%

 

12:30

USD

Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q

-0.9%

 

12:30

USD

Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q

1.3%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Aug 9

8:00

EUR

ECB Monthly Bulletin

 
 

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance

-8.4B

 

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

-48.7B

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Aug 10

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

-1.9%

 

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.2%

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-2.7%

 

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-59.7B

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 08  09:30  Germany

Aug 08  10:00  Norway

Aug 08  15:30  Italy

Aug 08  17:00  US

Aug 09  15:30  Italy

Aug 09  17:00  US

Aug 10  10:00  Belgium

Aug 13  09:10  Italy

Aug 13  09:10  Norway

Aug 13  09:30  Germany

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.