EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis August 9, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD declined today at trade as 1.2341 off by 0.0059. With no major catalyst to drive them aside from ongoing interpretation and reinterpretation of ECB President Draghi’s remarks at his press conference last week, markets continued their see-saw, trading lower today in Europe on the major equity indices while EURUSD trades below 1.24.

 News flow has generally been negative, with S&P affirming its CCC rating on Greece, but revising the outlook to negative. German exports were mixed, with headline falling ‐1.5%m/m, faster than consensus, but with an upward revision to the May release.

Markets remain focused on Chinese data due to be released over the next two days.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data August 8, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 08

 

JPY

 

 

 

Adjusted Current Account 

0.77T

 

0.75T 

 

0.28T 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Home Loans (MoM) 

1.3%

 

2.0% 

 

-0.9% 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

SECO Consumer Climate 

-17

 

-4 

 

-8 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BoE Inflation Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.420%

 

 

 

1.310% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.9%

 

-0.8% 

 

1.7% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

1.6%

 

1.3% 

 

-0.5% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

1.7%

 

0.6% 

 

5.6% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 9

8:00

EUR

ECB Monthly Bulletin

 
 

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance

-8.4B

 

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

-48.7B

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Aug 10

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

-1.9%

 

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.2%

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-2.7%

 

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-59.7B

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 09  15:30  Italy

Aug 09  17:00  US

Aug 10  10:00  Belgium

Aug 13  09:10  Italy

Aug 13  09:10  Norway

Aug 13  09:30  Germany

Aug 14  09:10  Greece 

Aug 14  09:10  Italy

Aug 14  09:30  Belgium

Aug 14  14:30  UK

Aug 15  09:10  Sweden

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US

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