EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for the week of June 27, 2016

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Published: Jun 25, 2016, 05:13 UTC

The EUR/USD took a big hit after traders ran for the hills after the UK voted to leave the EU. The greenback soared on safe haven trades pushing the pair

The EUR/USD took a big hit after traders ran for the hills after the UK voted to leave the EU. The greenback soared on safe haven trades pushing the pair down to 1.1121 seeing a decline of 2.30% for the day while the pair is down for 1.31% this week. here are not many EU data throughout the week and investors will most likely reprice the Brexit situation again, as riskier assets – including the EUR/USD pair has recovered notably since the initial sell-off, and this trend might continue in the days ahead.

On Tuesday, Spanish retail sales for May are due, followed by the confidence index in manufacturing from Italy. Wednesday will offer only German inflation indices for June.

More German data will come out on Thursday, including retail sales for May and the labor market update, with the euro zone’s CPI estimate due later in the day.

Final manufacturing PMIs will be released for euro zone countries on Friday and the week will finish with the euro zone’s unemployment rate.

The US calendar starts on Monday with the services PMI for June and the market anticipates a slight improvement from 51.3 to 51.8.

Tuesday will bring GDP figures for the first quarter of 2016 (the third estimate), along with the PCE and GDP price indices. Consumer confidence for June will also be released and should increase slightly to 93.0.

Another batch of PCE price indices is due on Wednesday, followed by personal income and spending figures, along with pending home sales for May. More importantly, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President and FOMC voter James Bullard is due to deliver a speech to the Society of Business Economists’ annual dinner in London.

In addition, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will participate in a panel with Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, ECB President Mario Draghi, and Brazil’s Central Bank Governor Alexandre Tombini at the ECB’s central banking conference in Portugal.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week:


	Cur.		Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Tuesday, June 28, 2016
		USD	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)		1.0%	0.8%
		USD	CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)		93.3	92.6
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
		USD	Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May)		-1.1%	5.1%
		USD	Crude Oil Inventories			-0.917M
Thursday, June 30, 2016
		GBP	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)		0.4%	0.4%
		GBP	GDP (YoY) (Q1)		2.0%	2.0%
		EUR	CPI (YoY) (Jun)			-0.1%
		CAD	GDP (MoM) (Apr)		0.1%	-0.2%
Friday, July 1, 2016
			Canada – Canada Day
		JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2)		4	6
		JPY	Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index		19	22
		CNY	Manufacturing PMI (Jun)		50.0	50.1
		CNY	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun)		49.2	49.2
		GBP	Manufacturing PMI (Jun)		50.2	50.1
		USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)		51.5	51.3