EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis July 19, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.2225 after retracing yesterday’s gain down 0.3% against the USD after Angela Merkel suggested she has some doubt that the European project will work. Most of the EUR crosses are still under tremendous pressure, with EURSEK reaching a new 12-year low; EURAUD and EURCAD at or within a few points of record lows; and EURGBP at levels not seen since 2008. EUR is under pressure. News flow has been light, with some focus on Greece’s likely request for a bridge loan as it faces the August 20th €3.1bn bond redemption (held by the ECB).

Market mood was downbeat after Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke did not commit to any action, dashing market hopes of a quantitative easing in the immediate run. Economic data out of china continue to thwart financial markets with another round of bleak numbers and is calling for a ground reality check that a hard landing could become inevitable for the economy. After restraining from any more easing yesterday before the senate, Bernanke is all set to dictate market moves into the evening session as he prepares to give a semiannual report on the U.S economy before the house. With the housing sector in the U.S showing signs of consolidation after lingering in the doldrums since the recession in 2009, the housing starts and building permits figures would be keenly watched for into today’s US session to substantiate renewal in the sector.

Also, in the limelight ahead this week would be the German parliament vote on Spanish bank aide on Thursday, after Euro zone finance ministers agreed last Monday on a rescue package of up to €100 billion for Spanish banks. Overall, the day is likely to remain incarcerated to the Fed and the U.S economic data.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data July 19, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 18

 

JPY

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.5%

 

1.4% 

 

1.4% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

6.1K

 

5.0K 

 

6.9K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Building Permits 

0.755M

 

0.765M 

 

0.784M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.760M

 

0.745M 

 

0.711M 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 19

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

2.48B

8:00

EUR

Current Account

4.6B

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

1.4%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.55M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-16.6

Jul 20

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

-0.3%

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

15.6B

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jul 19  00:30  Japan

Jul 19  08:30  Spain

Jul 19  08:50  France

Jul 19  09:30  UK

Jul 19  09:50  France

Jul 19  15:00  US

Jul 19  17:00  US

Jul 23- n/a  UK

Jul 23  09:30  Germany

Jul 24  08:30  Netherlands

Jul 24  08:30  Spain 

Jul 24  15:30  Italy

Jul 24  17:00  US

Jul 25  09:30  Germany

Jul 25  15:30  Italy

Jul 25  17:00  US

Jul 26  00:30  Japan

Jul 26  09:10  Italy

Jul 27  09:10  Italy

Jul 27  17:00  US

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