EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis June 13, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is down at 1.2481 and falling as investors sentiment turning negative on Spain and worries about the quick approaching Greek elections.

The euro had seen a recovery yesterday after the Spain’s bailout news hit the market on the weekend. As expected it was a short lived rebound in the currency against its major peers, as the bailout was a sign that the euro zone debt crisis is deepening. The bailout of Spain does not rule out risk of Greece or any other country leaving the euro zone. Investors will be anxiously waiting for the re-elections in the Greece which are scheduled for this weekend. The outcomes of the election will probably give a new direction to the euro. Support is at 1.2410 levels, and the resistance is near 1.2647 (recent high).

Market mood in trade remained rather subdued as unease over Spain’s weekend bailout lingered on. Into the twilight session, IMF chief Christine Lagarde is all set to speak on sustainable economic future in Washington; her comments would be keenly looked at in the context of state of world economy. With elections in Greece due in almost a week’s time, markets would be hoping for a desirable outcome to rejuvenate their scruffy sentiments. An uncanny outcome of the elections could throw up markets into a state of doldrums and periods of long liquidation. After ditching hopes of a QE3 last week, Federal Reserve is all set to take a centre stage with much anticipated FOMC meeting slated for 19th-20th June. With FOMC meeting scheduled at the backdrop of Greek election results, financial markets could be in for a twist. With U.S economy showing signs of stagnation off-late pertaining to series of muddled economic numbers, all eyes this week would be on the Retail sales and Industrial production numbers to instigate recuperation. With Chinese economy going through a lean patch, commodity market would be demanding soothing comments over the state of the economy incoming days, to re-ignite investor’s battered sentiments.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data for June 12, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jun. 12

 

GBP

 

 

 

RICS House Price Balance 

-16%

 

-18% 

 

-19% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

NAB Business Confidence 

-2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

0.1%

 

0.1% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

-0.7%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.9% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-1.0%

 

-1.0% 

 

-2.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Import Price Index (MoM) 

-1.0%

 

-1.0% 

 

0.0% 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

NIESR GDP Estimate 

0.1%

 

 

 

-0.1% 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 13

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

 

-0.1%

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

 

-0.3%

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

 

-0.2%

12:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

 

0.1%

14:00

USD

Business Inventories m/m

 

0.3%

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-0.1M

Jun 14

7:30

CHF

Libor Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

7:30

CHF

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

  

7:30

CHF

SNB Press Conference

  

8:00

CHF

SNB Financial Stability Report

  

8:00

EUR

ECB Monthly Bulletin

  

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

 

2.4%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

377K

12:30

USD

CPI m/m

 

0.0%

12:30

USD

Current Account

 

-124B

Jun 15

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance

 

-8.6B

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

 

17.1

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

 

36.2B

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

 

79.2%

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

 

1.1%

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

79.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jun 13 09:10 Italy

Jun 13 09:30 Germany

Jun 13 09:30 Swiss

Jun 13 17:00 US

Jun 14 09:10 Italy

Jun 14 09:30 UK

Jun 14 15:00 US

Jun 14 17:00 US

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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