EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis March 7, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD has fallen most of the day, trading now at 1.3123 down from 1.3226. Investors were not able to shake off the dismal feeling about the overall eurozone recovery, with less of a distraction with Greece more or less settled, the markets have been able to turn back to take a look at the overall economy. Although today rumors stirred the markets over last minute problems with the Greek PSI swap, but the rumors were quickly turned off.
Major Greek bondholders announced their support for a deal that will deeply cut the value of their holdings as their contribution to keeping the country afloat. The steering committee of creditors, which includes 12 major investors in Greek bonds and was involved in drawing up last month’s landmark deal, said it would accept the bond swap offer.
EU’s Rehn: Eurozone Currently in a Mild Recession but Signs of Improvement but, risk of credit crunch in European economy has been prevented largely due to long-term liquidity offer of ECB. The Commission supports combining remaining resources of EFSF with ESM to make sturdier European firewall.
Eurozone GDP tallied at forecast. Nothing worth noting in today’s release.
March 6, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast
Interest Rate Decision
Halifax House Price Index (MoM)
Scheduled Economic Events for March 7, 2012 (GMT)
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate 3.1% 3.1%
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF.
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) 0.6% 1.7%
German Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for both durable and non-durable goods. It is a leading indicator of production.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
13:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment 205K 170K
13:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 0.8% 0.7%
13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 1.2% 1.2%
The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.
Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.
Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
20:00 NZD Interest Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50%
20:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
20:00 NZD RBNZ Monetary Statement
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly Monetary Policy Statement outlines how the bank will achieve its inflation targets, how it proposes to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last statement’s release.
23:50 JPY GDP (QoQ) -0.2% -0.6%
23:50 JPY GDP Price Index (YoY) -1.6% -1.6%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Mar 07 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Mar 07 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl
Mar 07 10.30 UK Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt
Mar 08 16:00 US Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar 13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14
Mar 08 16:30 Italy Details BOT auction on Mar 13
Mar 09 11:00 Belgium OLO mini bond auction
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