EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 12, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 12, 2012 8:38 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
Add a comment

Category:

Fundamental Reports

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 12, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD rose to 1.2925 adding 50 pips on positive eco data in the US. Jobs data released today, supports the numbers from last Friday’s nonfarm report, showing a drop in unemployment claims.

Thursday morning the Euro had recovered its losses on Wednesday and the dollar index had pulled back. The S&P move was a bit surprising to the market place, but not really a significant shocker to change the overall perception of Spain’s financial condition or the overall EU debt crisis. That notion was reinforced by a fairly well-subscribed Italian government bond auction on Thursday. However, the S&P downgrade did bolster ideas Spain will seek further bailout funds from the EU sooner rather than later.

Traders are in search of more risk as they leave the safety of the USD and the JPY. For the first time in 4‐sessions, traders are adding risk into portfolios. There has not been a single catalyst; however central bank policy remains the key focus with the Fed defending QE, Japan and Switzerland defending their stance on strong currencies, all helping to revive undertones of currency wars. Both Brazil and South Korea cut interest rates. The territorial dispute between Japan and China is still negative for sentiment and Japanese growth expectations; the Chinese delegations decision to cancel their participation at the IMF meetings is a further complication. The IMF meetings generally seem to be supporting austerity but at a more moderate pace.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data October 11, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 11	JPY	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
	AUD	Employment Change	14.5K	3.8K	-9.1K
	AUD	Unemployment Rate	5.4%	5.3%	5.1%
	KRW	South Korean Interest Rate Decision	2.75%	2.75%	3.00%
	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	2.0%	2.0%	2.1%
	INR	Indian Trade Balance	-18.1B		-15.6B
	EUR	French CPI (MoM)	-0.3%	0.1%	0.7%
	HUF	Hungarian CPI (YoY)	6.6%	6.4%	6.0%
	SEK	Swedish CPI (YoY)	0.4%	0.7%	0.7%
	EUR	ECB Monthly Report
	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	1.1%	0.7%	1.1%
	CAD	Trade Balance	-1.3B	-2.0B	-2.5B
	USD	Trade Balance	-44.2B	-44.0B	-42.5B
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	339K	370K	369K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3273K	3275K	3288K

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 12	10:00	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.4%	0.6%
	13:30	USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.2%
	13:30	USD	PPI (MoM)	0.8%	1.7%
	14:55	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	77.9	78.3

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 12 09:30 Germany

Oct 12 10:00 Belgium

Want to read more articles like this one?

Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.

We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.

About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles