EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2012 Forecast
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2012 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD remained locked in the 1.29 range trading at 1.2974. Today European industrial production surprised to the upside, increasing by 0.6% m/m in August after Italy (+1.7% m/m) and France (+1.5% m/m) had both reported solid jumps in output when they released their data earlier this week. German industrial output contracted by 0.4% m/m.
The euro continued to move higher throughout the day, but remained well within its recent range, while global equities advanced as eurozone optimism picks up ahead of the weekend. While the timing of a Spanish bailout remains highly uncertain, there is growing consensus that an aid request it is more likely than not after S&P downgraded Spain’s rating on Thursday. As such a request would trigger ECB bond buying program and lead to a further reduction in the eurozone bond yields, it could at least a near-term boost to the euro and most risk-sensitive assets.
Meanwhile in the US, a report showed producer prices grew less than expected in September, leaving the Federal Reserve room to continue its USD-weakening QE program
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports
Economic Data October 12, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Oct. 12 |
|
JPY |
|
|
Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) |
0.4% |
|
0.5% |
|
-1.9% |
||
|
|
|
INR |
|
|
Indian Industrial Production (YoY) |
2.7% |
|
1.1% |
|
-0.2% |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.6% |
|
-0.4% |
|
0.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (MoM) |
1.1% |
|
0.7% |
|
1.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (YoY) |
2.1% |
|
1.8% |
|
2.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.3% |
|
2.5% |
|
2.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
83.1 |
|
78.0 |
|
78.3 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Oct. 15 |
08:15 |
CHF |
0.5% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Oct 15 09:10 Slovakia
Oct 15 10:00 Norway
Oct 16 08:30 Spain
Oct 16 09:10 Greece
Oct 16 09:30 Belgium
Oct 17 09:10 Sweden
Oct 17 09:30 Germany
Oct 17 09:30 Portugal
Oct 17 10:00 Norway
Oct 17 14:30 Sweden
Oct 18 08:30 Spain
Oct 18 08:50 France
Oct 18 09:30 UK
Oct 18 09:50 France
Oct 18 14:30 Sweden
Oct 18 15:00 US
Oct 18 17:00 US
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