EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 24, 2012 15:45 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD was weak today, trading at 1.2961 down 25 pips. German and French manufacturing data disappointed markets with PMI reporting under forecast, followed by a slew of other German data all under forecast and the EU manufacturing PMI also under forecast. The euro lost momentum. Traders were sitting tight today waiting for the FOMC statement due later in the day. US new Home Sales surprised markets with a strong upward report coming in above forecast at 389k against 385k supporting a US recovery.

Expectations for today’s FOMC statement are modest with most expecting a statement that provides a similar tone to the September 13th release. Any hints regarding the expansion of QE3 at the December meeting will be USD negative.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data October 24, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 24	AUD	CPI (QoQ)	1.4%	1.1%	0.5%
	AUD	Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ)	0.7%	0.6%	0.5%
	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI	49.10		47.90
	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	43.5	44.0	42.7
	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	45.7	48.0	47.4
	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index	100.0	101.5	101.4
	EUR	Manufacturing PMI	45.3	46.6	46.1
	EUR	German Current Assessment	107.3	109.8	110.3
	EUR	German Business Expectations	93.2	93.7	93.2
	ZAR	South African CPI (MoM)	0.90%	0.60%	0.20%
	EUR	German 10-Year Bund Auction	1.560%		1.520%
	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-23	-6	-8
	USD	New Home Sales	389K	385K	373K

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 25	09:30	GBP	GDP (QoQ)	0.6%	-0.4%
	13:30	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	0.8%	-1.6%
	13:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	7.1%	-13.2%
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	370K	388K
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3255K	3252K
	15:00	USD	Pending Home Sales (MoM)	2.1%	-2.6%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 25 00:30 Japan

Oct 25 09:10 Sweden

Oct 25 15:30 Italy

Oct 25 17:00 US

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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