EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2012 Forecast

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2012 Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD was weak today, trading at 1.2961 down 25 pips. German and French manufacturing data disappointed markets with PMI reporting under forecast, followed by a slew of other German data all under forecast and the EU manufacturing PMI also under forecast. The euro lost momentum. Traders were sitting tight today waiting for the FOMC statement due later in the day. US new Home Sales surprised markets with a strong upward report coming in above forecast at 389k against 385k supporting a US recovery.

Expectations for today’s FOMC statement are modest with most expecting a statement that provides a similar tone to the September 13th release. Any hints regarding the expansion of QE3 at the December meeting will be USD negative.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data October 24, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 24

 

AUD

 

 

CPI (QoQ) 

1.4%

 

1.1%

 

0.5% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) 

0.7%

 

0.6%

 

0.5% 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

49.10

 

 

 

47.90 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

43.5

 

44.0

 

42.7 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.7

 

48.0

 

47.4 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

100.0

 

101.5

 

101.4 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

45.3

 

46.6

 

46.1 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Current Assessment 

107.3

 

109.8

 

110.3 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Business Expectations 

93.2

 

93.7

 

93.2 

 

 

ZAR

 

 

South African CPI (MoM) 

0.90%

 

0.60%

 

0.20% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.560%

 

 

 

1.520% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-23

 

-6

 

-8 

 

 

USD

 

 

New Home Sales 

389K

 

385K

 

373K 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 25

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

0.6% 

-0.4% 

 

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.8% 

-1.6% 

 

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

7.1% 

-13.2% 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

388K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3255K 

3252K 

 

15:00

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

2.1% 

-2.6% 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 25 00:30 Japan 

Oct 25 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 25 15:30 Italy  

Oct 25 17:00 US 

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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