EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 4, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 03, 2012 15:57 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD remains in a fairly tight range at 1.2904 as traders sit on the sidelines waiting for Spain to make a move and for announcements from the ECB and the nonfarm payroll report in the US on Friday.

News flow has been notably light, with ongoing focus on when (not if) Spain will request aid. With close to €28bn in debt to rise before November, most expect the formal request soon. Most likely dates include the October 8/9 FinMin meeting or the October 18/19 EU summit. Moody’s has delayed its update on Spain, suggesting that it will be released by the end of the month. On the fundamental side, services PMI across Europe highlight a contractionary environment, with Eurozone at 46.1, Germany at 49.7, France at 45.0, Italy at 44.5 and Spain’s at 40.2. Tomorrow’s ECB press conference is likely to be the near-term highlight for EUR.

Traders seemed to have changed their risk aversion from the EU and towards China, with slowing growth and weak data, markets are worried about the global affects of a slowdown or hard landing in China. The Asian Development Bank today, reduced their growth forecast for the Asian region.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data October 3, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 03	AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM)	-5.3%		-5.6%
	AUD	Trade Balance	-2.03B	-0.70B	-1.53B
	TRY	Turkish CPI (MoM)	1.03%	1.10%	0.56%
	GBP	Services PMI	52.2	53.1	53.7
	EUR	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.1%	-0.1%	0.1%
	PLN	Polish Interest Rate Decision	4.75%	0.00%	4.75%
	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	162K	143K	189K
	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index		53.2	53.7

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 04	12:00	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%
	12:00	GBP	BOE QE Total	375B	375B
	12:45	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	370K	359K
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3271K	3271K
Oct. 05	10:00	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.2%	-0.2%
	11:00	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	-0.5%	0.5%
	13:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.2%	0.0%
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	110K	96K
	13:30	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.4	34.4
	13:30	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	125K	103K

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 04 08:30 Spain

Oct 04 08:50 France

Oct 04 15:00 US

Oct 05 15:30 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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