EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 4, 2013 Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 4, 2013 Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 4, 2013 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD  gained 21 points today, gaining mostly in the Asian session and trading steady the rest of the day ahead of US data which will be very limited due to the government shutdown. The euro is holding slightly above the 1.36 level. The euro was trading firmer near an eight-month high against the dollar today, supported by an apparent lack of concern by the European Central Bank about the currency’s recent strength. The dollar languished near recent lows against a basket of currencies at 79.843, with most investors and speculators cutting long bets in the greenback as the US government shutdown dragged on. Analysts say a prolonged shutdown would take a toll on the U.S. economy and prompt the Federal Reserve to postpone withdrawing monetary stimulus. That is likely to weigh on the dollar in the near term.

The euro has been supported by Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta winning a confidence vote in parliament on Wednesday after Silvio Berlusconi backtracked on threats to bring down the government.

U.S. President Barack Obama met with Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress on Wednesday, but a solution seemed unlikely as both sides dug in for what could be a long stalemate.  The standoff comes a few weeks ahead of the next political battle to raise the federal government’s borrowing limit. Failure to do this could result in a worst-case scenario of an historic U.S. debt default.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.   

Economic Data October 3, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 03

 

GBP

 

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.5% 

 

0.3% 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

Halifax House Price Index (YoY) 

6.2%

 

6.4% 

 

5.4% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Services PMI 

60.3

 

60.0 

 

60.5 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.2% 

 

0.5% 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 

313K 

 

305K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

 

 

2810K 

 

2823K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

 

 

57.4 

 

58.6 

  

 eurusd 1003bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 04

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (postponed)

0.2%

0.2%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls (postponed)

180K

169K

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours (postponed)

34.5

34.5

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls (postponed)

182K

152K

 

15:00

CAD

Ivey PMI 

54.0

51.0

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 07 15:30 Italy

Oct 08 00:30 Japan

Oct 08 08:10 Holland

Oct 08 09:10 Norway

Oct 08 09:30 UK

Oct 08 14:30 UK

Oct 08 15:30 Italy

Oct 08 17:00 US

Oct 09 09:30 Germany

Oct 09 09:30 Swiss

Oct 09 14:30 Sweden

Oct 09 17:00 US

Oct 10 00:30 Japan

Oct 10 09:10 Italy

Oct 10 09:10 Sweden

Oct 10 17:00 US

Oct 11 09:10 Italy

Oct 11 10:00 Belgium

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.