EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 05, 2012 15:47 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
Add a comment

Category:

Fundamental Reports

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is pretty steady at 1.3061; Market participants took the trouble of testing the 1.3000 psychological level as support just ahead of the release of the US NFP data for September. More important than a report slightly above the 113k consensus, being at 114k in September, the US nonfarm payrolls in August were revised much higher, from 96k to 143k, which boosted the risk sentiment and provided scope for a rally of the EUR/USD.

The confusing unemployment number continues to disturb traders, unemployment was forecast to rise is 8.2% but instead declined to 7.8% (explain that).

Yesterday, ECB President Draghi reiterated several key points at the press conference following the rate announcement, specifically that the ECB has taken significant action to stem the crisis, putting the onus on governments for taking the next step in easing concerns. With respect to Greece, Draghi stated that he does not support an extension of debt maturities, as this would amount to monetary financing. EUR fundamentals remain weak, with German factory orders contracting 1.3% m/m.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data October 5, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 05	JPY	Interest Rate Decision	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%
	JPY	BoJ Press Conference
	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	-1.3%	-0.5%	0.3%
	BRL	Brazilian CPI (YoY)	5.28%	5.27%	5.24%
	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%
	CAD	Building Permits (MoM)	7.9%	-1.0%	-2.8%
	CAD	Employment Change	52.1K	10.0K	34.3K
	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	114K	113K	142K
	USD	Unemployment Rate	7.8%	8.2%	8.1%
	CAD	Unemployment Rate	7.4%	7.0%	7.3%
	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.5	34.4	34.4
	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	104K	130K	97K

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 08	08:15	CHF	CPI (MoM)	0.3%
	11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.6%	1.3%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 08 09:10 Norway

Oct 08 15:30 Italy

Oct 09 08:30 Holland

Oct 09 09:30 UK

Oct 09 14:30 UK

Oct 09 17:00 US

Oct 10 09:10 Italy

Oct 10 09:10 Sweden

Oct 10 09:30 Germany

Oct 10 09:30 Swiss

Oct 10 14:30 Sweden

Oct 10 17:00 US

Want to read more articles like this one?

Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.

We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.

About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles