EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2012 Forecast

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2012 Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is pretty steady at 1.3061; Market participants took the trouble of testing the 1.3000 psychological level as support just ahead of the release of the US NFP data for September. More important than a report slightly above the 113k consensus, being at 114k in September, the US nonfarm payrolls in August were revised much higher, from 96k to 143k, which boosted the risk sentiment and provided scope for a rally of the EUR/USD.

The confusing unemployment number continues to disturb traders, unemployment was forecast to rise is 8.2% but instead declined to 7.8% (explain that).

Yesterday, ECB President Draghi reiterated several key points at the press conference following the rate announcement, specifically that the ECB has taken significant action to stem the crisis, putting the onus on governments for taking the next step in easing concerns.  With respect to Greece, Draghi stated that he does not support an extension of debt maturities, as this would amount to monetary financing.  EUR fundamentals remain weak, with German factory orders contracting 1.3% m/m.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data October 5, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 05

 

JPY

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

-1.3%

 

-0.5% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

BRL

 

 

Brazilian CPI (YoY) 

5.28%

 

5.27% 

 

5.24% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Building Permits (MoM) 

7.9%

 

-1.0% 

 

-2.8% 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Employment Change 

52.1K

 

10.0K 

 

34.3K 

 

 

USD

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

114K

 

113K 

 

142K 

 

 

USD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.8%

 

8.2% 

 

8.1% 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.4%

 

7.0% 

 

7.3% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

 

34.4 

 

34.4 

 

 

USD

 

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

104K

 

130K 

 

97K 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 08 

08:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

 

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.6%

1.3%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 08 09:10 Norway 

Oct 08 15:30 Italy  

Oct 09 08:30 Holland 

Oct 09 09:30 UK 

Oct 09 14:30 UK 

Oct 09 17:00 US 

Oct 10 09:10 Italy  

Oct 10 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 10 09:30 Germany 

Oct 10 09:30 Swiss 

Oct 10 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 10 17:00 US 

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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