EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 10, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.2768 soaring 0.0135 so far today after the release of the nonfarm jobs data.

European markets were firmer in the wake of the European Central Bank’s announcement of a fresh bond-buying plan Thursday. Spanish and Italian bond yields were down overnight, which suggests the European Union debt crisis is stabilizing. There was an upbeat economic report coming out of Germany overnight, as industrial output rose more than expected. Also, the Chinese government has announced a major infrastructure investment plan, in order to help reinvigorate its economy.

The highly anticipated U.S. employment report for August came in weaker than expected on the non-farm jobs front, posting a rise of 96,000. Forecasts for the key non-farm payrolls figure were at up around 125,000. The overall unemployment rate did decline by 0.2% in August. The stronger ADP jobs figure released on Thursday had many thinking Friday jobs report would be stronger than the consensus forecast. Friday’s weak jobs report likely opens the door wide for a fresh U.S. monetary stimulus announcement by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meeting in two weeks. Such would be bullish for the precious metals markets and other commodity markets, and that’s why gold and silver prices popped sharply higher following the jobs report.

The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading Friday, falling farther on the weak jobs report, and hit a fresh four-month low overnight. The greenback bears have the near-term technical advantage as a six-week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data September 7, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 07

 

AUD

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.56B

 

-0.30B 

 

-0.23B 

  

 

 

CHF

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

2.9%

 

2.9% 

 

2.9% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

2.9%

 

1.5% 

 

-2.4% 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

3.2%

 

2.0% 

 

-2.9% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

PPI Input (MoM) 

2.0%

 

1.7% 

 

0.4% 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

PPI Input (YoY) 

1.4%

 

1.2% 

 

-2.4% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-0.8%

 

-2.8% 

 

-3.8% 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.3%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.4% 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Building Permits (MoM) 

-2.3%

 

-2.0% 

 

-2.5% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Employment Change 

34.3K

 

10.0K 

 

-30.4K 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Labor Productivity (QoQ) 

-0.4%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

96K

 

125K 

 

141K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

8.1%

 

8.3% 

 

8.3% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.3%

 

7.3% 

 

7.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4

 

34.5 

 

34.4 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

103K

 

138K 

 

162K 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 09

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

 

2.0% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

 

-3.3% 

 

-2.9% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

 

0.5% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

 

20.4% 

 

20.4% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

 

9.1% 

 

9.2% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

 

13.2% 

 

13.1% 

  

Sep. 10

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

 

0.3% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Trade Balance 

 

19.80B 

 

25.10B 

 

 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

Home Loans (MoM) 

 

 

 

1.3% 

 

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 10 09:30 Germany 

Sep 10 15:30 Italy  

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30 Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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