EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 10, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.2768 soaring 0.0135 so far today after the release of the nonfarm jobs data.
European markets were firmer in the wake of the European Central Bank’s announcement of a fresh bond-buying plan Thursday. Spanish and Italian bond yields were down overnight, which suggests the European Union debt crisis is stabilizing. There was an upbeat economic report coming out of Germany overnight, as industrial output rose more than expected. Also, the Chinese government has announced a major infrastructure investment plan, in order to help reinvigorate its economy.
The highly anticipated U.S. employment report for August came in weaker than expected on the non-farm jobs front, posting a rise of 96,000. Forecasts for the key non-farm payrolls figure were at up around 125,000. The overall unemployment rate did decline by 0.2% in August. The stronger ADP jobs figure released on Thursday had many thinking Friday jobs report would be stronger than the consensus forecast. Friday’s weak jobs report likely opens the door wide for a fresh U.S. monetary stimulus announcement by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meeting in two weeks. Such would be bullish for the precious metals markets and other commodity markets, and that’s why gold and silver prices popped sharply higher following the jobs report.
The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading Friday, falling farther on the weak jobs report, and hit a fresh four-month low overnight. The greenback bears have the near-term technical advantage as a six-week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports
Economic Data September 7, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 07 |
|
AUD |
|
|
Trade Balance |
-0.56B |
|
-0.30B |
|
-0.23B |
||
|
|
|
CHF |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
2.9% |
|
2.9% |
|
2.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
2.9% |
|
1.5% |
|
-2.4% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Manufacturing Production (MoM) |
3.2% |
|
2.0% |
|
-2.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
PPI Input (MoM) |
2.0% |
|
1.7% |
|
0.4% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
PPI Input (YoY) |
1.4% |
|
1.2% |
|
-2.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Industrial Production (YoY) |
-0.8% |
|
-2.8% |
|
-3.8% |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.3% |
|
0.2% |
|
-0.4% |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Building Permits (MoM) |
-2.3% |
|
-2.0% |
|
-2.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Employment Change |
34.3K |
|
10.0K |
|
-30.4K |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Labor Productivity (QoQ) |
-0.4% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Nonfarm Payrolls |
96K |
|
125K |
|
141K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
8.1% |
|
8.3% |
|
8.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
7.3% |
|
7.3% |
|
7.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Average Weekly Hours |
34.4 |
|
34.5 |
|
34.4 |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Private Nonfarm Payrolls |
103K |
|
138K |
|
162K |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 09 |
02:30 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
|
2.0% |
|
1.8% |
|
|
|
|
02:30 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese PPI (YoY) |
|
-3.3% |
|
-2.9% |
|
|
|
|
02:30 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese CPI (MoM) |
|
0.5% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
06:30 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) |
|
20.4% |
|
20.4% |
|
|
|
|
06:30 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) |
|
9.1% |
|
9.2% |
|
|
|
|
06:30 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) |
|
13.2% |
|
13.1% |
||
|
Sep. 10 |
00:50 |
|
JPY |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
|
0.3% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
02:00 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese Trade Balance |
|
19.80B |
|
25.10B |
|
|
|
|
02:30 |
|
AUD |
|
|
Home Loans (MoM) |
|
|
|
1.3% |
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 10 09:30 Germany
Sep 10 15:30 Italy
Sep 11 00:30 Japan
Sep 11 08:30 Holland
Sep 11 09:10 Greece
Sep 11 09:30 UK
Sep 11 14:30 UK
Sep 11 17:00 US
Sep 12 09:10 Italy
Sep 12 09:10 Sweden
Sep 12 09:30 Germany
Sep 12 09:30 Swiss
Sep 12 14:30 Sweden
Sep 12 17:00 US
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