EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 11, 2012, Forecast

Posted September 10, 2012 15:59 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD lost a bit of momentum today, as traders took profits after the euro broke above the 1.28 price. Traders are worried about the outcome of the German Court ruling on the constitutionality of the ESM and EFSF, which might have serious consequences on the ECB and the euro. A new claim was also filed over the week with the Courts.

There is little in the way of eco data this week, as traders will be focuses on the upcoming FOMC meeting and Mr. Bernanke’s statement on the 13th.

Markets are also trying to get a better grip and understanding of the new ECB program, Outright Monetary Transaction is a complicated solution, it succeeds on several fronts, including:

1) it satisfies one of the most significant problems with the EFSF/ESM in that its size is unlimited;

2) it buys time for the politicians to reach a more sustainable solution;

3) it removes tail risk and confirms that the ECB will do whatever it takes; and

4) moves Europe one step towards closer fiscal ties.

Traders are not sure about the affects and the implementation and the time line to actually launch this new program, as rumor has it that Spain is running out of time and maybe forced to seek a bailout.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data September 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 10	00:50	JPY	Adjusted Current Account	0.34T	0.39T	0.77T
	00:50	JPY	GDP (QoQ)	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%
	00:50	JPY	GDP Price Index (YoY)	-0.9%	-1.1%	-1.1%
	00:50	JPY	Bank Lending (YoY)	0.9%		0.7%
	02:00	CNY	Chinese Trade Balance	26.66B	19.80B	25.10B
	02:00	CNY	Chinese Exports (YoY)	2.70%	3.00%	1.00%
	02:30	AUD	Home Loans (MoM)	-1.0%	0.1%	1.0%

Chinese Economic Data released on September 9, 2012 actual v. forecast (this is important)

Sep. 09