EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 11, 2012, Forecast

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By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD lost a bit of momentum today, as traders took profits after the euro broke above the 1.28 price. Traders are worried about the outcome of the German Court ruling on the constitutionality of the ESM and EFSF, which might have serious consequences on the ECB and the euro. A new claim was also filed over the week with the Courts.

There is little in the way of eco data this week, as traders will be focuses on the upcoming FOMC meeting and Mr. Bernanke's statement on the 13th.

Markets are also trying to get a better grip and understanding of the new ECB program, Outright Monetary Transaction  is a complicated solution, it succeeds on several fronts, including:

1) it satisfies one of the most significant problems with the EFSF/ESM in that its size is unlimited;

2) it buys time for the politicians to reach a more sustainable solution;

3) it removes tail risk and confirms that the ECB will do whatever it takes; and

4) moves Europe one step towards closer fiscal ties.

Traders are not sure about the affects and the implementation and the time line to actually launch this new program, as rumor has it that Spain is running out of time and maybe forced to seek a bailout.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data September 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Sep. 10

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

Adjusted Current Account 

0.34T

 

0.39T 

 

0.77T 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.3% 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

GDP Price Index (YoY) 

-0.9%

 

-1.1% 

 

-1.1% 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

Bank Lending (YoY) 

0.9%

 

 

 

0.7% 

 

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Trade Balance 

26.66B

 

19.80B 

 

25.10B 

 

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Exports (YoY) 

2.70%

 

3.00% 

 

1.00% 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

Home Loans (MoM) 

-1.0%

 

0.1% 

 

1.0% 

 

Chinese Economic Data released on September 9, 2012 actual v. forecast (this is important)

Sep. 09

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

 

2.0% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-3.5%

 

-3.3% 

 

-2.9% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.5% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.2%

 

20.4% 

 

20.4% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

8.9%

 

9.1% 

 

9.2% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

13.2%

 

13.2% 

 

13.1% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 11

00:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

 -22%

-24% 

 

09:30

GBP

Trade Balance 

 -9.0B

-10.1B 

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.7B 

-42.9B 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30 Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US 

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