EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 13, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.2891 heading toward the 1.29 psychological magic number. The pair sailed today after the German Court affirmed the constitutionality of the EFSF and ESM.
In addition today, European Commission President, Jose Barroso, unveiled the banking union details, which unifies banking supervision under ECB rule and calls for a European federation of nation states. Fundamental news included higher than expected German inflation, which rose 0.4%m/m and 2.1%y/y; complicating the path of the ECB and is likely to increase German resistance to current policies.
Finally, today’s release of the Troika’s review on Portugal was broadly positive and will open the way for the next tranche of funding to be approved.
Today’s Dutch election remains an important EUR risk, however is expected to produce a Liberal and Labour coalition that would lean towards a more pro‐European stance
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Events forecast vs. actual September 12, 2012
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 12 |
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean Unemployment Rate |
3.1% |
|
3.2% |
|
3.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) |
-0.8% |
|
-0.4% |
|
0.2% |
||
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
1.60% |
|
|
|
-2.50% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French CPI (MoM) |
0.7% |
|
0.5% |
|
-0.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
INR |
|
|
Indian Industrial Production (YoY) |
0.1% |
|
0.3% |
|
-1.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German CPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
|
0.3% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German CPI (YoY) |
2.1% |
|
2.0% |
|
2.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
1.5% |
|
1.6% |
|
1.8% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Claimant Count Change |
-15.0K |
|
0.5K |
|
-13.6K |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.6% |
|
-0.1% |
|
-0.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Import Price Index (MoM) |
0.7% |
|
1.4% |
|
-0.7% |
Upcoming Economic Events (today is the FOMC statement)
|
Date |
Time |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sept 13 |
09:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
ECB Monthly Report |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (MoM) |
1.1% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
370K |
|
365K |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3318K |
|
3322K |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (YoY) |
1.4% |
|
0.5% |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
|
2.5% |
|
|
|
|
17:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
0.25% |
|
0.25% |
|
|
|
|
17:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
FOMC Statement |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19:00 |
|
USD |
|
|
Federal Budget Balance |
-155.0B |
|
-69.6B |
|
|
|
|
19:15 |
|
USD |
|
|
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
|
|
|
Government Bond Auctions
Date and Country
Sep 11 00:30 Japan
Sep 11 08:30 Holland
Sep 11 09:10 Greece
Sep 11 09:30 UK
Sep 11 14:30 UK
Sep 11 17:00 US
Sep 12 09:10 Italy
Sep 12 09:10 Sweden
Sep 12 09:30 Germany
Sep 12 09:30 Swiss
Sep 12 14:30 Sweden
Sep 12 17:00 US
Sep 13 00:30 Japan
Sep 13 09:10 Italy
Sep 13 09:30 UK
Sep 13 15:00 US
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