EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 14, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD broke above the 1.29 price to trade at 1.2906 as markets now sit and wait on the statements from the Feds. The market place has a slight bias that the Fed will announce QE3, or some sort of fresh monetary stimulus package, on Thursday. But even if the Fed does not make a stimulus move on Thursday, the majority of the market place believes the U.S. central bank will act to ease monetary policy in the coming weeks. No significant action at all by the Fed Thursday would disappoint many commodity and stock market bulls and could put downside price pressure on many markets, including the precious metals.

The question is what has the markets factored in the price already and what are they expecting to hear from the Feds that will satisfy their demands and keep markets from reacting violently after the presentation.

Reuters and Bloomberg polls both show above a 62% chance that the Feds will launch QE3 with a significant amount of stimulus.

QE3: expect the Fed to launch an open ended QE program that will likely equate to close to $75bn per month targeted at both Treasury’s and MBS. A CNBC poll suggested 90%of money managers, strategist and economist polled expected QE; while yesterday’s Reuter’s survey suggested 65% of the 79 economist polled expected QE this year, but only 49% expected it to be launched today, with the median estimate in the amount of $500bn.

Operation Twist: Expect the Fed to continue operation twist, but recognize there is a chance they do not, but think there is limited market impact to this decision.  

It is all guess work at this time, but the Fed’s statement will be released in a short while.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data September 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

 

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 13

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

3.00%

 

2.75% 

 

3.00% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.5%

 

-0.4% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.00%

 

0.00% 

 

0.00% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

ECB Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

 

 

0.2% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

 

 

1.1% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 

370K 

 

365K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

 

 

3318K 

 

3322K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

PPI (YoY) 

 

 

1.4% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (YoY) 

 

 

2.6% 

 

2.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

0.25% 

 

0.25% 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Sep. 14

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.6% 

2.6% 

 

10:00

EUR

Employment Change (QoQ) 

-0.2% 

-0.2% 

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.7% 

1.7% 

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.6% 

0.8% 

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.5% 

0.0% 

 

13:30

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7% 

0.8% 

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.6% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

74.1 

74.3 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 14 10:00 Belgium

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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