EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 19, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD  remains strong, declining a few pips to trade at 1.3069.Markets were seen searching for direction as the Fed effect seemed to fade away. Today’s current account will be the important data. Today, the U.S. current account trade deficit narrowed in the April-June period, pushed lower by an increase in American exports and cheaper oil imports. 

The Commerce Department said Tuesday that the deficit in the current account decreased 12.1 percent to $117.4 billion in the second quarter. That’s down from a deficit of $133.6 billion in the January-March quarter, which had been the largest in three years.

The current account is the broadest measure of trade. It tracks the sale of merchandise and services between nations as well as investment flows. Economists watch the current account as a sign of how much the United States needs to borrow from foreigners.

Many economists predict it will widen again in coming quarters. A global slowdown has dampened demand of for U.S. exports. And oil prices are rising again, in part because of increased Middle East tensions.

Europe’s debt crisis has pushed much of the region into recession. The region accounts for about one-fifth of U.S. export sales. And other major export markets, including China, India and Brazil, have experienced slower growth.

The week on the whole is thin in regards to major economic reports with the U.S home sales and new construction being the key. In spite of jaded growth in the U.S, one sector is standing out, housing, which continues to inch forward. The housing starts on Wednesday are expected to show a rise to 770,000 in August from 746,000 in June. The demand for new homes in the U.S is likely to pick up again following the Federal Reserve’s decision on Thursday to buy billions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities, which could further pressure already low housing rates to fall again. With Chinese growth story slowing, manufacturing numbers out of the world’s second largest economy would be eagerly looked at by market onlookers to take their stance on the situation in the country. On the whole, week’s moves could remain engulfed to cues out of the U.S and Europe.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data September 18, 2012 actual v. forecast

Sep. 18

 

AUD

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

             

 

 

CNY

 

 

China House Prices (MoM) 

-1.40%

     

-1.50%

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.1%

 

2.2%

 

2.3%

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.5%

 

2.5%

 

2.6%

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

RPI (YoY) 

2.9%

 

3.1%

 

3.2%

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

DCLG House Price Index (YoY) 

2.0%

 

2.8%

 

2.3%

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.5%

 

0.1%

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-18.2

 

-19.0

 

-25.5

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-3.8

 

-16.5

 

-21.2

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Current Account 

-117.4B

 

-125.5B

 

-133.6B

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 19 

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.800M 

0.811M 

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.765M 

0.746M 

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales 

4.56M 

4.47M 

Sep. 20 

07:58

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

46.4 

46.0 

 

08:28

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.3 

44.7 

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.4% 

0.3% 

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.7% 

2.8% 

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-15 

-21 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 19 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 19 09:30 Germany 

Sep 19 09:30 Portugal 

Sep 19 10:00 Norway 

Sep 20 08:30 Spain 

Sep 20 08:50 France 

Sep 20 09:30 UK 

Sep 20 09:50 France 

Sep 20 15:00 US 

Sep 20 17:00 US 

Sep 21 15:30 Italy

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