EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 20, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.3022 falling a bit more today as the US dollar picked up some momentum as traders began to move past last week’s stimulus from the Feds and started dealing with eco and fundamental data.

Worries continue to grow over Spain.

There were no top tier European data releases today, but tomorrow’s PMIs will be important as they will prove the most up to date release from the European economies. Over the last 2 months significant progress has been made on bank solvency and the risk of an EMU breakup; however most European economies are either in or moving towards recession, leaving the growth outlook as the most important risk for Europe and EUR.

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann suggested that central banks that move towards printing money are creating short term room to maneuver while likely doing long-term damage in the form of inflation. While there is still substantial focus on if and when Spain will come to an aid request and how the terms will be structured. Most expect this to come after the September 28th reform date.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data September 19, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 19

 

JPY

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Building Permits 

0.803M

 

0.796M 

 

0.811M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.750M

 

0.765M 

 

0.733M 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 20 

07:58

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

46.4 

46.0 

 

08:28

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.3 

44.7 

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.4% 

0.3% 

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.7% 

2.8% 

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-15 

-21 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 20 08:30 Spain 

Sep 20 08:50 France 

Sep 20 09:30 UK 

Sep 20 09:50 France 

Sep 20 15:00 US 

Sep 20 17:00 US 

Sep 21 15:30 Italy  

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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