EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 21, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD  continues to decline trading at 1.2945. Global market sentiments turned negative after Chinese manufacturing data, Japanese trade balance and European manufacturing contracted raising concerns that economy is slowing down and whether stimulus measures offered by the central bankers are sufficient to revive the economy.

German Flash manufacturing PMI gained 47.3 in August as against 44.7 in the month of July. German Producers price index increased to 0.5 marks in the month of August as against zero percent in the month of July while German Flash Manufacturing PMI also improved 47.3 level in the month of August as against 44.7 level in July.

While US data was strong with a fairly positive jobless claim report but it was the Philly Fed Index that surprised markets and strengthen the USD. This compounded with positive housing data yesterday, the word recovery is whispered again. As hopes of the US economy moving out of stall mode becomes a possibility.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data September 20, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 20

 

JPY

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.47T

 

-0.37T 

 

-0.37T 

   

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

47.80

 

 

 

47.60 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

42.6

 

46.4 

 

46.0 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

47.3

 

45.3 

 

44.7 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

46.0

 

45.4 

 

45.1 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.4% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.7%

 

2.7% 

 

2.3% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-8

 

-15 

 

-21 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

382K

 

375K 

 

385K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3272K

 

3300K 

 

3304K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

-1.9

 

-4.0 

 

-7.1 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

There are no top tier eco data releases due in Europe or the US on the 21st.

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 21 15:30 Italy  

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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