EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 27, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD declined today to trade at 1.2848 holding even after a disappointing New Homes Sales report from the US. Sales were expected to print at 380K and markets were confident that the forecast would be positive, instead the final report showed only 373K. The USD remained strong though as it had gathered momentum all day against the euro as Greece, Spain and the ECB weighed heavily on investors’ confidence. Spanish bond yields climbed again today, as Spain continued to delay asking for a bailout while the government played cat and mouse with the ECB over the bond buying program, demanding that the ECB tell them how long they would continue to purchase bonds, while Spain has not made application for a bailout, which is a part of the OMT program.

Late in the NA session yesterday the combination of Fed Plosser’s anti-QE3 speech and rising rioting in Spain weighed on the close. Today, the release of the joint German, Finnish and Dutch statement on the ESM combined with news that Spanish GDP will be far lower than expected helped push EURUSD below 1.29. This was followed by the release of disappointing Italian retail sales (falling -0.2% m/m and 3.2%y/y) and ongoing fears that Greece will fail to meet the Troika’s demands, which provided the catalyst for the final leg lower in EUR.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data September 26, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Sep. 26

 

NOK

 

 

Norwegian Unemployment Rate 

3.00%

 

3.00% 

 

3.10% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.520%

 

 

 

1.420% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

6

 

 

-3 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.0% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

 

2.0% 

 

2.1% 

 

 

USD

 

 

New Home Sales 

373K

 

380K 

 

372K 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 27 

08:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change 

10K 

9K 

 

09:30

GBP

Business Investment (QoQ) 

-1.5% 

-1.5% 

 

09:30

GBP

Current Account 

-12.4B 

-11.2B 

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.5% 

-0.5% 

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

-0.5% 

-0.5% 

 

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.3% 

-0.6% 

 

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-5.0% 

4.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

378K 

382K 

 

13:30

USD

GDP (QoQ) 

1.7% 

1.7% 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3285K 

3272K 

 

15:00

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

-0.7% 

2.4% 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 27 00:30 Japan 

Sep 27 09:10 Italy  

Sep 27 17:00 US 

 

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