EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 28, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.2894 in a fairly flat day. For Greece there is rising speculation over who between the IMF, EU governments and ECB will bear the brunt of any concessions on the country’s aid package. Today’s German unemployment release was in line with expectations, a loss of a modest 9k jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate at 6.8%. Event risk continues to be an important driver of financial markets; however we re‐iterate that today and tomorrow’s events are important but serve more to create noise; whereas next week’s ECB (October 4th) and non‐farm payrolls release (October 5) will prove more important drivers.

Market mood was seen dreary ahead of the Spain’s budget announcement, which could help pave the way for a bailout request and could implement more austerity measures amid mounting apprehensions in the country. Also, series of downbeat growth numbers out of the major economies of the world is also baffling investor sentiments. With the U.S economy sluggish and Fed sounding pessimistic over recent economic activities, the annualized growth figures today could signify the current state of the economy.  Also, shoring up the sentiments over the weekend ahead of a weeklong Chinese holiday, would be the manufacturing figures from largest metal consumer, China amid derailing growth story in the nation. In the wake of modest economic data, it remains to be seen if the Chinese central bank do sprung any surprise by boosting liquidity in coming days.  On the whole, week’s moves could remain engulfed to cues out of the U.S and Europe.

In the US today pending home sales reported under forecast, with yesterday’s dismal new home sales also doing the same and durable goods shocking trader with huge declines. The only bright spot was unemployment claims were lower.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data September 27, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 27

 

DKK

 

 

Danish Unemployment Rate 

4.70%

 

4.70% 

 

4.70% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Rate 

6.8%

 

6.8% 

 

6.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Change 

9K

 

10K 

 

11K 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

Business Investment (QoQ) 

0.9%

 

-1.5% 

 

-1.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Current Account 

-20.8B

 

-12.4B 

 

-15.4B 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.4%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

5.24%

 

 

 

5.82% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-1.6%

 

0.3% 

 

-1.3% 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-13.2%

 

-5.0% 

 

3.3% 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

359K

 

378K 

 

385K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.3%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3271K

 

3285K 

 

3275K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

-2.6%

 

-0.7% 

 

2.6% 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 28

06:30

EUR

French GDP (QoQ) 

0.0%

0.0%

 

07:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

-0.1%

0.1%

 

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.57

1.57

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

2.6%

 

13:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1%

0.0%

 

13:30

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.5%

0.4%

 

14:45

USD

Chicago PMI 

52.9

53.0

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

78.9

79.2

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 01 10:00 Norway 

Oct 02 09:15 Austria 

Oct 02 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 02 09:30 UK 

Oct 02 14:30 UK 

Oct 03 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 03 10:00 Norway 

Oct 04 08:30 Spain 

Oct 04 08:50 France 

Oct 04 15:00 US 

Oct 05 15:30 Italy 

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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