EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 3, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.2590 after Mr. Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole. While Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke did not give any hints at the timing of the next Fed move, he made it clear that he’s ready to pull the trigger. The only question that remains is whether it will happen in mid-September or December. QE would boost the stock market, of course. But that’s not the main reason for doing it, Bernanke said Friday. The real reason is the immense waste and suffering that unemployment causes.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has asked Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti to hold off on a request for a bailout, according to a report in Spanish daily El Mundo on Friday. Merkel reportedly made the request to Monti at their meeting in Berlin on Wednesday, and the newspaper said she would make the same request of Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy when they meet next Thursday. The efforts by Merkel are reportedly aimed at calming an internal crisis at the Bundesbank, whose central bank chief, Jens Weidmann, is strongly opposed to any action by the European Central Bank to buy Spanish or Italian government bonds. German newspaper Bild reported in its online edition on Friday that Weidmann has been considering his resignation in recent weeks
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports
Economic Data August 31, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Aug. 31 |
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) |
0.3% |
|
0.5% |
|
1.4% |
||
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
4.3% |
|
4.3% |
|
4.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) |
-0.5% |
|
-0.6% |
|
-0.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.2% |
|
1.7% |
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
INR |
|
|
Indian GDP (YoY) |
5.5% |
|
5.3% |
|
5.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Nationwide HPI (MoM) |
1.3% |
|
0.1% |
|
-0.8% |
||
|
|
|
NOK |
|
|
Norwegian Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.20% |
|
0.50% |
|
-1.40% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
|
2.5% |
|
2.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
11.3% |
|
11.3% |
|
11.3% |
||
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
GDP (MoM) |
0.2% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Chicago PMI |
53.0 |
|
53.5 |
|
53.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
74.3 |
|
73.6 |
|
73.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and US ( no CAD events)
|
Date |
Time |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
|
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep 03 |
08:15 |
|
CHF |
|
|
|
|
3.7% |
|
||
|
|
08:30 |
|
CHF |
|
|
|
|
48.6 |
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 03 09:10 Norway Bond auction
Sep 03 10:00 Belgium OLO auction
Sep 04 00:30 Japan Auctions 10Y JGBs
Sep 04 09:15 Austria Bond auction
Sep 04 09:30 Belgium Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills
Sep 04 14:30 UK Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep
Sep 05 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Sep 05 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction
Sep 05 09:30 UK 4.5% 2042 Gilt auction
Sep 06 00:30 Japan Auctions 30Y JGBs
Sep 06 08:30 Spain Bono auction
Sep 06 08:50 France OAT auction
Sep 06 09:10 Sweden I/L bond auction
Sep 06 15:00 US Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &
Sep 07 15:30 Italy
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