EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 3, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.2590 after Mr. Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole. While Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke did not give any hints at the timing of the next Fed move, he made it clear that he’s ready to pull the trigger. The only question that remains is whether it will happen in mid-September or December. QE would boost the stock market, of course. But that’s not the main reason for doing it, Bernanke said Friday. The real reason is the immense waste and suffering that unemployment causes.

 German Chancellor Angela Merkel has asked Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti to hold off on a request for a bailout, according to a report in Spanish daily El Mundo on Friday. Merkel reportedly made the request to Monti at their meeting in Berlin on Wednesday, and the newspaper said she would make the same request of Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy when they meet next Thursday. The efforts by Merkel are reportedly aimed at calming an internal crisis at the Bundesbank, whose central bank chief, Jens Weidmann, is strongly opposed to any action by the European Central Bank to buy Spanish or Italian government bonds. German newspaper Bild reported in its online edition on Friday that Weidmann has been considering his resignation in recent weeks

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Economic Data August 31, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 31

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) 

0.3%

 

0.5% 

 

1.4% 

   

 

 

JPY

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.3%

 

4.3% 

 

4.3% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-0.6% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.2%

 

1.7% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

INR

 

 

Indian GDP (YoY) 

5.5%

 

5.3% 

 

5.3% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

1.3%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.8% 

   

 

 

NOK

 

 

Norwegian Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.20%

 

0.50% 

 

-1.40% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

2.5% 

 

2.4% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

11.3%

 

11.3% 

 

11.3% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

GDP (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Chicago PMI 

53.0 

 

53.5 

 

53.7 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

74.3 

 

73.6 

 

73.6 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and US ( no CAD events)

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

 

 

Previous

 

 

Sep 03 

08:15

 

CHF

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

 

 

3.7% 

 

 

 

08:30

 

CHF

 

 

SVME PMI 

 

 

48.6 

 

 

Government Bond Auction

Date  Time  Country 

Sep 03  09:10  Norway  Bond auction

Sep 03  10:00  Belgium  OLO auction

Sep 04  00:30  Japan  Auctions 10Y JGBs

Sep 04  09:15  Austria  Bond auction

Sep 04  09:30  Belgium  Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills

Sep 04  14:30  UK  Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep

Sep 05  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Sep 05  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction

Sep 05  09:30  UK  4.5% 2042 Gilt auction

Sep 06  00:30  Japan  Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Sep 06  08:50  France  OAT auction

Sep 06  09:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Sep 06  15:00  US  Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &

Sep 07  15:30  Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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