EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis September 4, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD has seen very little activity today, after an exhausting Friday; the pair seem to be on holiday with the US markets, taking a breather so to speak before gearing up for the action from the ECB later this week. The pair is trading at 1.2569. US and Canadian markets are closed for a holiday.

Rumors are that Angela Merkel has asked Spain and Italy to hold off on any formal requests until after the ECB has had a chance to introduce its new plans.

Over the weekend news leaked that Bankia now needed another infusion of cash, which seems to have caught the Spanish government off guard.

Today, eurozone PMI were released and all were disappointing, from Switzerland, to France, the only positive numbers were the UK’s.

Market mood was seen buoyed by optimism that central banks will undertake further so-called quantitative easing, or QE, to support the global economic revival. With the crisis in the Euro region showing no signs of subsiding, market onlookers would be ardently looking at the ECB’s monthly meet on 6th September Thursday, where a hint at further stimulus measures to boost the Euro region’s economy could be impending.

The all-important U.S. non-farm payrolls report is due on Friday. With Bernanke citing a lackluster improvement in the labor market as a matter of grave concern challenging the U.S. economy, Friday’s data could be a game changer. On the whole, ECB’s monthly meet and the U.S labor data are the key event market spectators would be looking at to take a stance on what to expect from the Federal Open Market Committee’s own policy meeting the following week on Sept 12-13.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports

Actual versus Forecast Economic Releases. US and CAD markets are closed for a holiday

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 03

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean CPI (YoY) 

1.2%

 

1.4% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.5% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Capital Spending 

7.70%

 

8.90% 

 

3.30% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) 

-0.7%

 

1.0% 

 

-3.7% 

  

 

 

AUD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.8%

 

0.2% 

 

1.2% 

  

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

47.60

 

 

 

47.80 

 

 

 

 

INR

 

 

Indian Trade Balance 

-15.5B

 

-8.8B 

 

-10.3B 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TRY

 

 

Turkish CPI (MoM) 

0.56%

 

0.25% 

 

-0.23% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

3.2%

 

4.3% 

 

3.3% 

  

 

 

CHF

 

 

SVME PMI 

46.7

 

49.0 

 

48.6 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Italian Manufacturing PMI 

43.60

 

45.00 

 

44.30 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

46.0

 

46.2 

 

46.2 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

44.7

 

45.1 

 

45.1 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

45.1

 

45.3 

 

45.3 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.5

 

46.2 

 

45.2 

  

 

Economic Highlights for the upcoming week… Tiers 3 keep your eyes on these

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 04

05:30

AUD

Interest Rate Decision 

3.50% 

 

3.50% 

 

 

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

50.0 

 

49.8 

 

 

Sep. 05

02:30

AUD

GDP (QoQ) 

0.8% 

 

1.3% 

 

 

 

14:00

CAD

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

 

 

Sep. 06

02:30

AUD

Employment Change 

5.0K 

 

14.0K 

 

 

 

02:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate 

5.3% 

 

5.2% 

 

 

 

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50% 

 

0.50% 

 

 

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75% 

 

0.75% 

 

 

Sep. 07

15:00

CAD

Ivey PMI 

58.0 

 

62.8 

  

 

Government Bond Auction

Date  Time  Country 

Sep 04  00:30  Japan  Auctions 10Y JGBs

Sep 04  09:15  Austria  Bond auction

Sep 04  09:30  Belgium  Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills

Sep 04  14:30  UK  Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep

Sep 05  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Sep 05  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction

Sep 05  09:30  UK  4.5% 2042 Gilt auction

Sep 06  00:30  Japan  Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Sep 06  08:50  France  OAT auction

Sep 06  09:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Sep 06  15:00  US  Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &

Sep 07  15:30  Italy

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