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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – week of October 3, 2016 – Forecast

By:
Colin First
Published: Oct 1, 2016, 06:36 UTC

It was a week to forget for the EURUSD traders. A week in which the total range was around 125 pips, this despite the fears about the Deutsche bank which

Euros2

It was a week to forget for the EURUSD traders. A week in which the total range was around 125 pips, this despite the fears about the Deutsche bank which caused a risk off sentiment for a brief period. Normally, this pair has a daily range of 80-100 pips.  Even given the fact that it was the last week of the month and there was not any major news driving the market, the range for the week has been pathetic. Let us all hope that we get a better week in the next one.

The low of the week was around 1.1150 and the high came in at around 1.1275 making it a tight week of trading. It was a dream come true for range traders as the market was trying to figure out the next course of action. The coming week is the first week of the month where there is a slew of news coming out from different parts of the world and this is likely to perk up the liquidity and the volatility. Though there is not much news from the Euro region, apart from the continuing Deutsche bank fears, we have many news from the US with the most important being the NFP coming in on Friday. Market will be looking forward to a strong report as some sort of a confirmation of a rate hike this year. Any disappointment in the NFP data would indicate that the rate hike would get further delayed and this would disappoint the dollar bulls and could help in pushing the EURUSD pair above 1.1250 and to our eventual target of 1.1350.  Before that, we have the ADP Employment report which will basically be a precursor to the NFP and this could give an insight into the jobs report as well.

EURUSD Weekly
EURUSD Weekly

As usual, the strong support comes in at 1.1200 and 1.1150 and further down at 1.1050 if the price gets there. Trade safe and continue to trade the ranges and when there is a range break, try to get in the direction of the break rather than trying to fade it.

About the Author

Colin specializes in developing trading strategies and analyze financial instruments both technically and fundamentally. Colin holds a Bachelor of Engineering From Milwaukee University.

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