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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – week of September 26, 2016 – Forecast

By:
Colin First
Updated: Sep 25, 2016, 10:38 UTC

It is always a nice feeling to watch the weekly charts. They give long term trends which are a guide to predict the daily trends and they somehow seem to

EUR/USD

It is always a nice feeling to watch the weekly charts. They give long term trends which are a guide to predict the daily trends and they somehow seem to be much clearer than looking at the daily or hourly charts. The fact that we look at the weekly charts during the weekend when the market is closed gives us a sense of calm and helps to view the charts much more objectively and with patience.

A look at the weekly chart for EURUSD shows very clearly that this pair is in a range. The low of the range comes in at 1.1140 and the high of the range comes in at 1.1350. We had also mentioned that ever since Brexit, the powers-that-be have been very careful in ensuring that the price of EURUSD does not fall too much as they do not want 2 weak and highly volatile currencies in the same region. In the past week, we have been spending time at the bottom of the range for a couple of days and still we have not been able to have a break of the bottom. The past week also saw 2 major announcements out of the way, the Fed and the BOJ. These had held the markets at ransom for the past couple of weeks and with that out of the way and with the upcoming week not having a lot of major news,  the moves in the coming week would be a follow up of what we had seen in the past week. This means that we would continue to stay stuck in the range and we could see EURUSD visiting the top of the range at 1.1350. There does not seem to be any obvious trigger for breaking the range and so any move towards the range bottom is good for going long and vice versa.

EURUSD Weekly
EURUSD Weekly

On Sep 26, we have the German Ifo Business Climate expected at 106.3 and we also have the ECB President Draghi speaking and he will again be speaking on Sep 28 and there are also many news coming out of the USA in the coming week including the GDP and the Fed chief is also scheduled to speak a couple of times during the course of the week. All of these are market movers but we dont believe that any of these would be so big as to cause the range in this pair to break.So expect the 200 pip range to continue during the course of the week.

For This week’s Economic Calendar

About the Author

Colin specializes in developing trading strategies and analyze financial instruments both technically and fundamentally. Colin holds a Bachelor of Engineering From Milwaukee University.

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