EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast – April 29, 2016

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Published: Apr 28, 2016, 08:49 UTC

The EUR/USD added 32 points to trade at 1.1355 gaining 32 points as the US dollar tumbled after the Fed statement on Wednesday evening gave no real

EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast – April 29, 2016

The EUR/USD added 32 points to trade at 1.1355 gaining 32 points as the US dollar tumbled after the Fed statement on Wednesday evening gave no real indications to when the Fed will raise rates next. According to Alliance News a stronger euro is not a concern for the European Central Bank , ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said in an interview published Wednesday.

“The euro has stabilized over the last month after a clear depreciation,” Coeure told the Italian daily Il Sole 24 in an interview, the transcript of which was published on the ECB website.

“It is not an obstacle to our monetary policy,” he said.

The ECB has always maintained that the exchange rate is not a policy target. A stronger euro is hurting exports amid the fragile economic recovery in the euro area.

“Only if there was a sharp appreciation of the euro would that be a concern,” Coeure said.

The euro touched a session high at 1.1344; quickly up from 1.1320 as the minutes count down ahead of the FOMC decision.

Plenty of market watchers are talking about a more-hawkish Fed but the market isn’t playing along. The high today in the euro was the best level in six days.

Speaking after last week’s rate decision, central bank President Mario Draghi argued that officials will need more time to assess the impact of a large stimulus expansion unveiled in March before considering further easing. With the first TLRO II operation is due in June, meaning the ECB is likely to remain in wait-and-see mode for a while yet.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Interest Rate Decision	2.25%	2.25%	2.25%
JPY	Household Spending (YoY) (Mar)	-5.3%	-4.2%	1.2%
JPY	Household Spending (MoM) (Mar)	0.5%	-0.3%	1.7%
JPY	Jobs/applications ratio (Mar)	1.30	1.28	1.28
JPY	National Core CPI (YoY) (Mar)	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.0%
JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)	3.6%	2.9%	-5.2%
JPY	Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)	-1.1%	-1.5%	0.4%
JPY	BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
JPY	Interest Rate Decision	-0.10%	-0.10%	-0.10%
JPY	BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
GBP	Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Apr)	4.9%	5.0%	5.7%
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
EUR	German Unemployment Change (Apr)	-16K	4K	0K
EUR	German Unemployment Rate (Apr)	6.2%	6.2%	6.2%
EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Apr)		-0.2%	0.8%
USD	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)		0.7%	1.4%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		260K	247K

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, April 29, 2016

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Japan – Showa Day
NZD	Building Consents (MoM) (Mar)			10.8%
NZD	ANZ Business Confidence (Apr)			3.2
AUD	PPI (QoQ) (Q1)		0.2%	0.3%
AUD	Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Mar)		0.6%	0.6%
EUR	German Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)		0.3%	-0.4%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		0.9%	1.0%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)		0.4%	0.3%
EUR	Unemployment Rate (Mar)		10.3%	10.3%
GBP	BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar)		0.1%	0.1%
USD	Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar)		0.2%	0.1%
CAD	GDP (MoM) (Feb)		-0.1%	0.6%
CAD	RMPI (MoM) (Mar)		3.7%	-2.6%
USD	Chicago PMI (Apr)		53.0	53.6
USD	Michigan Consumer Expectations		80.2	79.6
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)		90.0	89.7
USD	Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count			343