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EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast – February 15, 2016

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Feb 12, 2016, 11:27 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD eased 38 points to trade at 1.1285 ahead of US retail sales data. Eurozone GDP met expectations while industrial

EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast – July 4, 2016

eurusd friday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD eased 38 points to trade at 1.1285 ahead of US retail sales data. Eurozone GDP met expectations while industrial production missed forecast. German annual GDP was weak and inflation data printed at expectations but only at -0.8%. domestic consumption kept Germany’s economy on a steady yet modest growth path at the end of last year, despite weak exports and growing headwinds from the global economy, official data showed Friday.

Germany’s gross domestic product grew at a quarterly rate of 0.3% in the fourth quarter–the same rate as in the previous quarter and in line with economists’ forecasts, data from Germany’s statistical office showed.

Germany kicks off a day of gross domestic product data from across the Eurozone on Friday. Some economists warned that the Eurozone economy might have already lost steam at the end of last year, as deteriorating prospects for the global economy cast doubt on its growth outlook.

Germany’s statistics office said that net trade weighed on growth in the final three months of 2015, as goods exports were down from the third quarter–a sign that companies were feeling the pinch from weak demand from China, Russia and other large developing economies.

Domestic consumption, however, supported Europe’s largest economy at the end of last year, Destatis said. Household spending rose again, albeit slightly, in light of a buoyant labor market and rising wages, while falling energy and fuel prices boosted disposable income. Public spending picked up markedly, Destatis said, with the government struggling to accommodate a record influx of migrants.

Earlier on Friday, preliminary growth data from the euro zone’s largest economy and powerhouse, Germany, showed the economy is limping along with a lackluster expansion seen in the fourth quarter.

In the fourth quarter, German GDP rose 0.3 percent from the previous quarter, in line with expectations. Year-on-year, the economy expanded 1.3 percent, Germany’s statistics office Destatis said on Friday. The statistics body also confirmed growth of 1.7 percent in 2015.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
  China – Lunar New Year
  AUD RBA Governor Stevens Speaks        
  AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Dec) 2.6% 3.0% 1.9%
  EUR German CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.8% -0.8% -0.8%  
  EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%  
  EUR German GDP (YoY) (Q4) 2.1% 2.3% 1.7%
  EUR EU Finance Ministers Meeting        
  EUR GDP (YoY) (Q4) 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%  
  EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%  
  EUR Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) -1.0% 0.3% -0.5%
  USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)   0.1% -0.1%  
  USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Jan)   -0.9% -1.1%  
  USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Jan)   -1.4% -1.2%  
  USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)   0.1% -0.1%

 

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
    United States – Presidents’ Day
    Canada – Family Day
  JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q4)   -0.3% 0.3%  
  JPY GDP (YoY) (Q4)   -1.2% 1.0%  
  CNY Exports (YoY) (Jan)   -1.9% -1.4%  
  CNY Imports (YoY) (Jan)   -0.8% -7.6%  
  CNY Trade Balance (Jan)   58.85B 60.09B  
  JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)     -1.4%  
  EUR Trade Balance (Dec)     23.6B

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time and Country

Feb 15 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Feb 17

Feb 17 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Feb 17 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Feb 17 11:30 Germany Euro 5bn 0.5% Feb 2026 Bund

Feb 17 11:30 UK New Jul 2026 Gilt auction

Feb 18 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Feb 18 11:50 France Holds bond auction

Feb 18 17:20 Sweden Details of I/L auction on Feb 25

Feb 19 11:10 Italy Details of BTP€i/Zero-coupon auction

 

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