EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast – May 31, 2016

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Updated: May 30, 2016, 13:38 UTC

The EUR/USD gained 19 points to trade at 1.1134 as the euro bounced off its recent lows ahead of the ECB rate meeting and press conference this week,

EUR/USD Fundamental Forecast – May 31, 2016

The EUR/USD gained 19 points to trade at 1.1134 as the euro bounced off its recent lows ahead of the ECB rate meeting and press conference this week, which will follow eurozone inflation data. The US dollar remains stronger today but the US is on holiday for the Memorial Day. Despite the seemingly positive nature of Friday’s US GDP data there remain some reservations among investors that the world’s largest economy is strong enough to justify an imminent resumption of monetary tightening.

As forecasts point towards a similarly weak level of growth in the second quarter there is increasing skepticism that the Fed can justify raising interest rates in June, particularly as recent manufacturing data has been largely disappointing.

The euro was generally listless against its peers last week, as a limitation on domestic data compounded imperfectly resolved situations elsewhere.

One of the detracting factors was the Greek debt crisis, which made the headlines again due to a Eurogroup meeting on the issue. Progressive agreements were reached, but critics argued that debt relief was the only real solution to the problem.

Elsewhere, French strikes by workers over planned changes to labour laws put the nation under considerable strain, with nuclear plants and fuel production and distribution facilities being blockaded by protesters.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	ANZ Business Confidence (May)			6.2
AUD	Building Approvals (MoM) (Apr)		-3.0%	3.7%
AUD	Current Account (Q1)		-19.5B	-21.1B
AUD	Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Apr)		0.5%	0.4%
EUR	CPI (YoY) (May)		-0.1%	-0.2%
EUR	Unemployment Rate (Apr)		10.2%	10.2%
USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Apr)		0.2%	0.1%
USD	Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Apr)			1.6%
USD	Personal Spending (MoM) (Apr)		0.6%	0.1%
CAD	GDP (MoM) (Mar)		-0.1%	-0.1%
CAD	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)			0.2%
CAD	GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q1)		2.9%	0.8%
USD	S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY)		5.1%	5.4%
USD	Chicago PMI (May)		50.6	50.4
USD	CB Consumer Confidence (May)		96.0	94.2