GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis August 15, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD is trading at 1.5684. GBP is up 0.1%, and trading comfortably within its two month range of 1.5394 to 1.5793. Today, GBP enjoyed a short bounce when CPI came in above expectations, rising 2.6% y/y on headline and 2.3% on core (consensus had been 2.3%y/y and 2.1%, respectively). The impact could be partially Olympic related, which would prove temporary; but as oil prices have risen in July the risk is that inflationary pressures do not fall as fast as the BoE expects, thereby decreasing the ability of the central bank to enter a further round of QE. In other news, there are rumors that the government is unveiling new stimulus program aimed at home building, which would be positive for growth.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data August 14, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Time |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
Aug. 14 |
00:01 |
|
GBP |
|
|
RICS House Price Balance |
-24% |
|
-23% |
|
-22% |
|
|
|
00:50 |
|
JPY |
|
|
Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
|
-0.3% |
|
0.9% |
|
|
|
02:30 |
|
AUD |
|
|
NAB Business Confidence |
4 |
|
|
|
-3 |
|
|
|
06:30 |
|
EUR |
|
|
French CPI (MoM) |
-0.4% |
|
-0.2% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
06:30 |
|
EUR |
|
|
French GDP (QoQ) |
0.0% |
|
-0.1% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
07:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
German GDP (QoQ) |
0.3% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.5% |
|
|
|
07:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
German GDP (YoY) |
0.5% |
|
1.0% |
|
1.7% |
|
|
|
07:45 |
|
EUR |
|
|
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.1% |
|
-0.1% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
08:15 |
|
CHF |
|
|
PPI (MoM) |
-0.3% |
|
-0.2% |
|
-0.3% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.3% |
|
2.1% |
|
2.1% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
|
2.3% |
|
2.4% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
|
-0.1% |
|
-0.4% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
|
-0.2% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-25.5 |
|
-19.3 |
|
-19.6 |
|
|
|
10:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-0.6% |
|
-0.7% |
|
0.9% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-21.2 |
|
-19.1 |
|
-22.3 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.2% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.8% |
|
0.4% |
|
-0.8% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.8% |
|
0.3% |
|
-0.7% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (YoY) |
0.5% |
|
0.5% |
|
0.7% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.5% |
|
2.3% |
|
2.6% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Aug 15 |
12:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
7.4 |
||
|
13:00 |
USD |
55.0B |
||
|
13:15 |
USD |
78.9% |
||
|
13:15 |
USD |
0.4% |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
-3.7M |
||
|
Aug 16 |
9:00 |
CHF |
-42.5 |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
2.4% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.76M |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
361K |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.76M |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
-12.9 |
||
|
Aug 17 |
6:00 |
EUR |
-0.4% |
|
|
8:00 |
EUR |
10.9B |
||
|
13:55 |
USD |
72.3 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
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Aug 16 09:30 UK
Aug 16 15:00 US
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