GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis August 15, 2012, Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.5684. GBP is up 0.1%, and trading comfortably within its two month range of 1.5394 to 1.5793. Today, GBP enjoyed a short bounce when CPI came in above expectations, rising 2.6% y/y on headline and 2.3% on core (consensus had been 2.3%y/y and 2.1%, respectively).  The impact could be partially Olympic related, which would prove temporary; but as oil prices have risen in July the risk is that inflationary pressures do not fall as fast as the BoE expects, thereby decreasing the ability of the central bank to enter a further round of QE. In other news, there are rumors that the government is unveiling new stimulus program aimed at home building, which would be positive for growth.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Aug. 14

00:01

 

GBP

 

 

 

RICS House Price Balance 

-24%

 

-23% 

 

-22% 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.3% 

 

0.9% 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

NAB Business Confidence 

4

 

 

 

-3 

 

06:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

06:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

French GDP (QoQ) 

0.0%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.0% 

 

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.5% 

 

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (YoY) 

0.5%

 

1.0% 

 

1.7% 

 

07:45

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

-0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.1% 

 

08:15

 

CHF

 

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.3% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.3%

 

2.1% 

 

2.1% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

2.3% 

 

2.4% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.4% 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-25.5

 

-19.3 

 

-19.6 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.6%

 

-0.7% 

 

0.9% 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-21.2

 

-19.1 

 

-22.3 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.8%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.8% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.8%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.7% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

PPI (YoY) 

0.5%

 

0.5% 

 

0.7% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.5%

 

2.3% 

 

2.6%

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 15

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

 

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

 

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

7.4

 

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

55.0B

 

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

78.9%

 

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

0.4%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-3.7M

Aug 16

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

-42.5

 

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

2.4%

 

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.76M

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

361K

 

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-12.9

Aug 17

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

-0.4%

 

8:00

EUR

Current Account

10.9B

 

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 15  09:10  Sweden

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.