GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis August 17, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.5741 with the only positive data releases today, retails sales both month over month and year over year reported well over forecast. This can be accounted for by the Queens Jubilee and the Olympics.

On a day with huge amounts of negative eco data from the US, it did not take much to give the pound a bit of a bounce.

In the US today, eco data turned red, housing starts, unemployment and manufacturing wiped the smiles off of trader’s faces, but once again brought back rumors of stimulus money.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 16, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 16

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.3% 

 

3.2% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.8% 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.8%

 

1.4% 

 

2.6% 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

 

2.4% 

 

2.4% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.9% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Building Permits 

0.812M

 

0.770M 

 

0.760M 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

-7.89B

 

10.67B 

 

26.11B 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.746M

 

0.757M 

 

0.754M 

  

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

-0.40%

 

0.40% 

 

-0.40% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

366K

 

365K 

 

364K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3305K

 

3300K 

 

3336K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

-7.1

 

-5.0 

 

-12.9 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event  

Forecast

Previous

Aug 17

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

0.4%

-0.4%

 

8:00

EUR

Current Account

7.8B

10.9B

 

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.5

72.3

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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