GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis August 20, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD held steady today trading at 1.5703. GBP is flat however traders appear eager to test the upside of the range, with resistance first at the 100‐day MA at 1.5753 followed by the June 18th high of 1.5793. There was no UK data released today; however BoE member Martin Weale suggested that the UK does not face a double dip recession but is instead stuck in a sustained period of stagnation. Next week’s focus will be the first revision to Q2 GDP, widely expected to confirm a contraction; but more mild than the ‐0.7%q/q first estimate suggested.

Global markets were quiet today, with little eco data and little news flow. As summer and vacation grow to a close, traders are enjoying the last few weeks before September madness returns.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 17, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German PPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German PPI (YoY) 

0.9%

 

1.3% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Current Account 

12.7B

 

11.1B 

 

10.3B 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

10.5B

 

5.4B 

 

6.8B 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.3%

 

2.0% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

73.6

 

72.4 

 

72.3 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Michigan Inflation Expectations 

3.6%

 

 

 

3.0% 

   

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

        Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 21

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

12.1B

 

10:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

-6

Aug 22

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.37M

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-3.7M

 

18:00

USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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