GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis August 20, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 17, 2012 15:02 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD held steady today trading at 1.5703. GBP is flat however traders appear eager to test the upside of the range, with resistance first at the 100‐day MA at 1.5753 followed by the June 18th high of 1.5793. There was no UK data released today; however BoE member Martin Weale suggested that the UK does not face a double dip recession but is instead stuck in a sustained period of stagnation. Next week’s focus will be the first revision to Q2 GDP, widely expected to confirm a contraction; but more mild than the ‐0.7%q/q first estimate suggested.

Global markets were quiet today, with little eco data and little news flow. As summer and vacation grow to a close, traders are enjoying the last few weeks before September madness returns.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 17, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

EUR

German PPI (MoM)

0.0%

0.4%

-0.4%

EUR

German PPI (YoY)

0.9%

1.3%

1.6%

EUR

Current Account

12.7B

11.1B

10.3B

EUR

Trade Balance

10.5B

5.4B

6.8B

CAD

Core CPI (MoM)

-0.1%

0.2%

-0.4%

CAD

CPI (MoM)

-0.1%

0.2%

-0.4%

CAD

CPI (YoY)

1.3%

2.0%

1.5%

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment

73.6

72.4

72.3

USD

Michigan Inflation Expectations

3.6%

3.0%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Previous
Aug 21	8:30	GBP	Public Sector Net Borrowing	12.1B
	10:00	GBP	CBI Industrial Order Expectations	-6
Aug 22	14:00	USD	Existing Home Sales	4.37M
	14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories	-3.7M
	18:00	USD	FOMC Meeting Minutes

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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