GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis August 22, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 21, 2012 16:54 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD added 0.0077 to trade at 1.5787. Sterling is up 0.4% vs the USD but underperforming most of its peers as a result of poor public borrowing figures and a challenged CBI industrial trends survey release. Public finance metrics are a major risk for GBPUSD as the UK remains vulnerable to any negative developments regarding its AAA rating. GBP has enjoyed a relative benefit as investors have considered it to be a regional safe haven amid ongoing uncertainty in the euro area. Of the three rating agencies, S&P holds a stable outlook in contrast to the negative outlook from both Moody’s and Fitch.

Today markets were in a very positive mood, moving away from the USD and supporting crosses and commodities worldwide.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 22, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug. 21

AUD

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

NZD

Inflation Expectations (QoQ)

2.3%

2.4%

HKD

Hong Kong CPI (YoY)

1.60%

3.40%

3.70%

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders

-21

-8

-6

CAD

Wholesale Sales (MoM)

-0.1%

0.4%

0.9%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Aug 22	7:00am	CHF	Trade Balance	2.10B
	8:00am	EUR	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	43.8	2.25B
	8:00am	EUR	French Flash Services PMI	50.1	43.4
Aug 23	8:30am	EUR	German Flash Manufacturing PMI	43.6	50.0
	8:30am	EUR	German Flash Services PMI	50.2	43.0
	9:00am	EUR	Flash Manufacturing PMI	44.3	50.3
	9:00am	EUR	Flash Services PMI	47.9	44.0
	9:30am	GBP	BBA Mortgage Approvals	28.2K	47.9
	11:00am	GBP	CBI Realized Sales	16	26.3K
	1:30pm	USD	Unemployment Claims	365K	11
	2:00pm	USD	Flash Manufacturing PMI	51.3	366K
	3:00pm	USD	New Home Sales	362K	51.4
	9:30am	GBP	Revised GDP q/q	-0.5%	350K
	9:30am	GBP	Prelim Business Investment q/q	2.8%	-0.7%
	1:30pm	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders m/m	0.5%	1.9%
Aug 24	1:30pm	USD	Durable Goods Orders m/m	2.8%	-1.4%
	2:00pm	EUR	Belgium NBB Business Climate	-10.8	1.3%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

21/8 10:30 Spain

21/8 12:00 EFSF

22/8 11:30 Germany

22/8 11:10 Sweden

23/8 05:45 Japan

23/8 11:30 UK

23/8 19:00 US

27/8 11:30 Germany

28/8 10:30 Spain

28/8 11:00 Italy

28/8 19:00 US

29/8 11:00 Italy

29/8 19:00 US

30/8 05:35 Japan

30/8 11:00 Italy

30/8 19:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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