GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis August 24, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD dipped after trading above the 1.59 level earlier today Sterling is flat from yesterday’s close, holding on to gains of 1.0% in the past two sessions, buoyed by developments related to expectations for international policy action. GBP has meaningfully breached the upper limit of its two month range at 1.58, leaving it open to rally towards the psychologically important 1.60 level. Tomorrow’s GDP revision is the key release for the week, and the anticipation of an improvement should propel GBPUSD higher on relative central bank policy expectations. Regarding BoE policy, MPC member Weale (a hawk) has spoken of ‘perverse effects’ related to further interest rate cuts.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data August 23, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Aug. 23 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
47.80 |
|
|
49.30 |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German GDP (QoQ) |
0.3% |
|
0.3% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German GDP (YoY) |
0.5% |
|
0.5% |
|
0.5% |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French Manufacturing PMI |
46.2 |
|
43.6 |
|
43.4 |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Manufacturing PMI |
45.1 |
|
43.4 |
|
43.0 |
|
|
|
|
SEK |
|
|
Swedish Unemployment Rate |
7.00% |
|
7.20% |
|
8.80% |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Manufacturing PMI |
45.3 |
|
44.2 |
|
44.0 |
|
|
|
|
NOK |
|
|
Norwegian GDP (QoQ) |
1.2% |
|
1.0% |
|
1.5% |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
28.4K |
|
28.2K |
|
25.9K |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
CBI Distributive Trades Survey |
-3 |
|
15 |
|
11 |
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
372K |
|
365K |
|
368K |
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3317K |
|
3300K |
|
3313K |
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
New Home Sales |
|
365K |
|
350K |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and North American markets
|
Aug. 24 |
08:00 |
|
HUF |
|
|
Hungarian Retail Sales (YoY) |
|
|
-2.40% |
|
-2.50% |
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
Business Investment (QoQ) |
|
|
2.8% |
|
1.9% |
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
|
|
-0.5% |
|
-0.7% |
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
GDP (YoY) |
|
|
-0.6% |
|
-0.8% |
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
|
|
0.5% |
|
-1.4% |
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
|
|
2.4% |
|
1.3% |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
23/8 05:45 Japan
23/8 11:30 UK
23/8 19:00 US
27/8 11:30 Germany
28/8 10:30 Spain
28/8 11:00 Italy
28/8 19:00 US
29/8 11:00 Italy
29/8 19:00 US
30/8 05:35 Japan
30/8 11:00 Italy
30/8 19:00 US
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