GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis August 31, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD is trading at 1.5854 flat vs the USD as it continues to trade within the relatively narrow range seen over the past three sessions, with movement generally limited between 1.5800 and 1.5850. There is potential for significant movement over the next 24 hours, given the upcoming speech from Bernanke, and GBP is likely to rally on any talk of additional stimulus. The BoE’s Markets Director, Paul Fisher, has commented on the Funding for Lending Scheme, stating that the effects of the initiative are not immediate and that it will likely take some time before its impact is felt in the broader economy.
Overall economic confidence in Europe remains low; with survey data released by Eurostat today showing that the outlooks in the services economy, industrial economy, construction sector, and consumer economy were all weaker in August than they were in July. None of the largest European economies saw meaningful improvement in overall sentiment, and the UK saw overall confidence decline the most.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data August 30, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Aug. 30 |
|
JPY |
|
|
Retail Sales (YoY) |
-0.8% |
|
-0.2% |
|
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Building Approvals (MoM) |
-17.3% |
|
-5.0% |
|
-1.0% |
||
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) |
3.4% |
|
2.4% |
|
7.7% |
||
|
|
|
DKK |
|
|
Danish Unemployment Rate |
4.70% |
|
4.70% |
|
4.60% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Unemployment Rate |
6.8% |
|
6.8% |
|
6.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Unemployment Change |
9K |
|
8K |
|
9K |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction |
5.82% |
|
|
|
5.96% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Current Account |
-16.0B |
|
-15.0B |
|
-10.2B |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.4% |
|
0.4% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
374K |
|
370K |
|
374K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3316K |
|
3307K |
|
3321K |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Aug.31 |
07:00 |
GBP |
0.1% |
-0.7% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
2.5% |
2.4% |
|
|
|
14:45 |
USD |
53.5 |
53.7 |
|
|
|
14:55 |
USD |
73.6 |
73.6 |
Government Bond Auctions
Aug 31 14:30 UK Publication of the Q4 Gilt operations calendar
Sep 03 09:10 Norway Bond auction
Sep 03 10:00 Belgium OLO auction
Sep 04 00:30 Japan Auctions 10Y JGBs
Sep 04 09:15 Austria Bond auction
Sep 04 09:30 Belgium Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills
Sep 04 14:30 UK Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep
Sep 05 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Sep 05 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction
Sep 05 09:30 UK 4.5% 2042 Gilt auction
Sep 06 00:30 Japan Auctions 30Y JGBs
Sep 06 08:30 Spain Bono auction
Sep 06 08:50 France OAT auction
Sep 06 09:10 Sweden I/L bond auction
Sep 06 15:00 US Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &
Sep 07 15:30 Italy
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