GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis August 31, 2012, Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.5854 flat vs the USD as it continues to trade within the relatively narrow range seen over the past three sessions, with movement generally limited between 1.5800 and 1.5850.  There is potential for significant movement over the next 24 hours, given the upcoming speech from Bernanke, and GBP is likely to rally on any talk of additional stimulus.  The BoE’s Markets Director, Paul Fisher, has commented on the Funding for Lending Scheme, stating that the effects of the initiative are not immediate and that it will likely take some time before its impact is felt in the broader economy.

Overall economic confidence in Europe remains low; with survey data released by Eurostat today showing that the outlooks in the services economy, industrial economy, construction sector, and consumer economy were all weaker in August than they were in July. None of the largest European economies saw meaningful improvement in overall sentiment, and the UK saw overall confidence decline the most.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 30, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 30

 

JPY

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

-0.8%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-17.3%

 

-5.0% 

 

-1.0% 

  

 

 

AUD

 

 

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

3.4%

 

2.4% 

 

7.7% 

  

 

 

DKK

 

 

Danish Unemployment Rate 

4.70%

 

4.70% 

 

4.60% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Rate 

6.8%

 

6.8% 

 

6.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Change 

9K

 

8K 

 

9K 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

5.82%

 

 

 

5.96% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.1% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Current Account 

-16.0B

 

-15.0B 

 

-10.2B 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.4% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

374K

 

370K 

 

374K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3316K

 

3307K 

 

3321K 

  

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Aug.31 

07:00

GBP

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

0.1% 

-0.7% 

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.5% 

2.4% 

 

14:45

USD

Chicago PMI 

53.5 

53.7 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

73.6 

73.6 

Government Bond Auctions

Aug 31  14:30  UK  Publication of the Q4 Gilt operations calendar

Sep 03  09:10  Norway  Bond auction

Sep 03  10:00  Belgium  OLO auction

Sep 04  00:30  Japan  Auctions 10Y JGBs

Sep 04  09:15  Austria  Bond auction

Sep 04  09:30  Belgium  Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills

Sep 04  14:30  UK  Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep

Sep 05  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Sep 05  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction

Sep 05  09:30  UK  4.5% 2042 Gilt auction

Sep 06  00:30  Japan  Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Sep 06  08:50  France  OAT auction

Sep 06  09:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Sep 06  15:00  US  Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &

Sep 07  15:30  Italy

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.