GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis July 10, 2012, Forecast

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By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is slightly up for the day, trading at 1.552. This week’s movement will be partly driven by domestic factors, given releases of IP and trade, which are expected to be mixed as the trade deficit is forecast to have narrowed while IP is forecast to show further contraction.  The BoE has embarked on further QE as a result of tepid growth, as both trade and investment have failed to provide adequate support.

Today's main focus will remain the Eurogroup meetings and the USD could be quite volatile later in the session depending on the information releases, statements, press conferences and the ECB Presidents speech.

Fireworks should get started shortly.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for July 9, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 09

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

Adjusted Current Account 

0.28T

 

0.42T 

 

0.29T 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

 

2.3% 

 

3.0% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-2.1%

 

-1.9% 

 

-1.4% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

-0.6%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

06:45

 

CHF

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

2.9%

 

3.2% 

 

2.9% 

   

 

13:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 10

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

1.5%

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

-0.7%

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance

-10.1B

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

0.1%

Jul 11

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

-50.1B

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-4.3M

Jul 12

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

-0.8%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-1.0%

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-124.6B

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

-0.2%

Jul 13

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

-1.0%

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

73.2

 

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