GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis July 12, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.5563 adding a few pips, as the USD declined before the release of the FOMC minutes due late in the day. Market participants are hoping to get some clue to the thinking of the US FOMC, to predict what Chairman Bernanke will introduce at the next meeting. This past weekend, two member of the FOMC in public addresses said that they would vote in favor of additional monetary stimulus.

Also today, the US trade deficit shrunk as expected. The trade balance reported at -48.7B against expectations of -48.5B, having little effect on the currency.

In the UK there was no eco data today and little press to support the sterling.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 11, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 11

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.2%

 

3.2% 

 

3.2% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

3.70%

 

 

 

0.30% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Home Loans (MoM) 

-1.2%

 

0.7% 

 

0.5% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.310%

 

 

 

1.520% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.8B

 

-1.0B 

 

-0.6B 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-48.7B

 

-48.5B 

 

-50.6B 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 12

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

-0.8%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-1.0%

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-124.6B

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

-0.2%

Jul 13

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

-1.0%

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

73.2

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jul 12  09:10  Italy

Jul 12  09:30  UK

Jul 12  15:00  US

Jul 12  17:00  US

Jul 13  09:10  Italy

Jul 13  10:00  Belgium

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