GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis July 13, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.5444 on the back of the USD. The USD continues to soar today, trading at over 83.99 on the DX. There was no eco data in the UK and limited data in Europe. Only two odd reports

European industrial production showed a glimmer of promise in this morning’s May print, rising 0.6% m/m.  Half of the outperformance compared to flat consensus expectations was attributed to downward revisions to the prior month that is now reported to have dropped by 1.1% m/m.  The volatile trend remains pointed lower since last September.

The Irish economy missed expectations for Q1 GDP, but only because of upward revisions to the prior quarter.  Upward revisions to Q4 growth (from -0.2% q/q to +0.7% q/q) explained all of the disappointment to the Q1 print released this morning and then some (-1.1% vs -0.4% expectation).  That’s perhaps small comfort in that the economy definitely weakened into the New Year in line with other European economies.  The softness was also broadly based as consumption fell 2.1% q/q, sectors like transport plunged 11.5%, with brighter spots in government spending (+2.2% after a string of negatives) and capital spending.

With the confusing FOMC minutes behind and markets no longer trying to predict what the Fed will do, atleast for a day or two, focus will return tomorrow to fundamentals, but there is little in the way of data, so it will be a news flow day, or maybe just a quiet day.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Jul. 12

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

3.00%

 

3.25% 

 

3.25% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Employment Change 

-27.0K

 

0.3K 

 

27.9K 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.2%

 

5.2% 

 

5.1% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.6%

 

-0.1% 

 

-1.1% 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Import Price Index (MoM) 

-2.7% 

 

-1.7% 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

350K 

 

372K 

 

374K 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3304 

 

3300K 

 

3306K 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 13

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

-1.0%

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

73.2

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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