GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis July 16, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.5471. On a day with little eco data in the UK, the USD continues to trade strongly. In the US, PPI, unexpectedly, increased. Traders had forecast 0.2% but print was 2.0%.

The Dollar Index is trading close to 84.00, as risk aversion remains high.

The BoE has outlined the details of its lending plan, which could potentially provide £80bn in credit to consumers and commercial borrowers.  Starting August 1st, banks can borrow up to 5.0% of their loans to the non-financial sector at a cost of 0.25%, and will only face an escalation in costs in the event of a contraction in lending; the program will run for 18 months and has a four year repayment term.  The FLS (Funding for Lending Scheme) is a combined effort from the BoE and the UK Treasury, both of whom hope that low-cost funding to the financial sector, structured to incentivize loan growth, will help make credit available to borrowers that have not directly benefitted from QE

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 13

03:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.4%

 

20.1% 

 

20.1% 

 

 

 

03:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese GDP (YoY) 

7.6%

 

7.6% 

 

8.1% 

 

 

 

03:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.5%

 

9.8% 

 

9.6% 

 

 

 

03:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

13.7%

 

13.5% 

 

13.8% 

 

 

 

05:30

 

JPY

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-3.4%

 

-3.1% 

 

-3.1% 

 

 

 

08:15

 

CHF

 

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

-0.4% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

10:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

5.82%

 

 

 

6.19% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

2.0% 

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

1.0% 

 

-0.5% 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

 

14:55

 

USD

 

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

 

 

73.4 

 

73.2 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jul 16

7:15

CHF

Industrial Production q/q

-7.5%

8.8%

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

 

2.4%

12:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

 

-0.2%

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

 

2.3

14:00

USD

Business Inventories m/m

 

0.4%

Jul 17

8:30

GBP

CPI y/y

 

2.8%

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

-16.9

9:15

ALL

G7 Meetings

   

12:30

USD

CPI m/m

 

-0.3%

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

 

25.6B

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

 

-0.1%

Jul 18

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

 

8.1K

8:30

GBP

Unemployment Rate

 

8.2%

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

 

-43.4

12:30

USD

Building Permits

 

0.78M

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

 

0.71M

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-4.7M

Jul 19

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

 

2.48B

8:00

EUR

Current Account

 

4.6B

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

1.4%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

   

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

 

4.55M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

-16.6

Jul 20

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

 

-0.3%

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

 

15.6B

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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