GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis July 3, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD at 4GMT is trading at 1.5707 maintaining gains made on Friday and adding an additional 0.004 in today’s session. The USD has been very strong today, seeing the DX move back up to 82.00 but the all important Bank of England decisions coming later this week has kept investors strong. Today, a surprise report showed that UK manufacturing PMI had come in better the forecast, showing growth in the UK manufacturing sector. The report was above forecast and also above last month’s actual.

Markets are over 70% sure that the BoE will offer some sort of additional monetary stimulus at their meeting on the 5th.

This will be a light volume week with a major US holiday on Wednesday; most traders will take off for a long week as the US celebrates its Independence Day.

US ISM Manufacturing we just released in the states coming in well below estimates, this should weaken the USD in later trading, but at this point the pair remains stable.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic date for July 2, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 July 2

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 

-1

 

-4 

 

-4 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

48.20

 

 

 

48.10 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

6.2%

 

5.0% 

 

0.2% 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

SVME PMI 

48.1

 

45.0 

 

45.4 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

45.2

 

45.3 

 

45.3 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.0

 

44.7 

 

44.7 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

45.1

 

44.8 

 

44.8 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

48.6

 

46.7 

 

45.9 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

11.1%

 

11.1% 

 

11.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

47.9 

 

52.0 

 

53.5 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jul 3

3rd-6th

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

-0.3%

0.5%

4:30am

GBP

Construction PMI

53.1

54.4

4:30am

GBP

Net Lending to Individuals m/m

1.1B

1.4B

10:00am

USD

Factory Orders m/m

0.1%

-0.6%

Jul 4

 

 

 

 

Jul 5

4:00am

EUR

Final Services PMI

46.8

46.8

4:30am

GBP

Services PMI

53.0

53.3

5:00am

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

0.2%

-1.0%

6:00am

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

0.2%

-1.9%

7:00am

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

7:45am

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

1.00%

8:15am

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

101K

133K

8:30am

USD

Unemployment Claims

385K

386K

10:00am

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.1

53.7

11:00am

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-0.1M

Jul 6

3:00am

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

 

303.8B

3:15am

CHF

CPI m/m

-0.3%

0.0%

4:30am

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.1%

-2.5%

6:00am

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

0.3%

-2.2%

8:30am

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

92K

69K

8:30am

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

8.2%

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jul 03 08:30 Holland

Jul 03 09:15 Austria 

Jul 03 09:30 Belgium 

Jul 03 09:30 UK 

Jul 03 14:30 UK 

Jul 04 09:30 UK 

Jul 05 08:30 Spain

Jul 05 08:50 France 

Jul 05 15:00 US

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