GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis July 3, 2012, Forecast

Posted July 02, 2012 16:22 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD at 4GMT is trading at 1.5707 maintaining gains made on Friday and adding an additional 0.004 in today’s session. The USD has been very strong today, seeing the DX move back up to 82.00 but the all important Bank of England decisions coming later this week has kept investors strong. Today, a surprise report showed that UK manufacturing PMI had come in better the forecast, showing growth in the UK manufacturing sector. The report was above forecast and also above last month’s actual.

Markets are over 70% sure that the BoE will offer some sort of additional monetary stimulus at their meeting on the 5th.

This will be a light volume week with a major US holiday on Wednesday; most traders will take off for a long week as the US celebrates its Independence Day.

US ISM Manufacturing we just released in the states coming in well below estimates, this should weaken the USD in later trading, but at this point the pair remains stable.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic date for July 2, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

July 2

JPY

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index

-1

-4

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI

48.20

48.10

CHF

Retail Sales (YoY)

6.2%

5.0%

0.2%

CHF

SVME PMI

48.1

45.0

45.4

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI

45.2

45.3

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI

45.0

44.7

EUR

Manufacturing PMI

45.1

44.8

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

48.6

46.7

45.9

EUR

Unemployment Rate

11.1%

11.1%

11.0%

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index

47.9

52.0

53.5

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Jul 3	3rd-6th	GBP	Halifax HPI m/m	-0.3%	0.5%
	4:30am	GBP	Construction PMI	53.1	54.4
	4:30am	GBP	Net Lending to Individuals m/m	1.1B	1.4B
	10:00am	USD	Factory Orders m/m	0.1%	-0.6%
Jul 4 Jul 5	4:00am	EUR	Final Services PMI	46.8	46.8
	4:30am	GBP	Services PMI	53.0	53.3
	5:00am	EUR	Retail Sales m/m	0.2%	-1.0%
	6:00am	EUR	German Factory Orders m/m	0.2%	-1.9%
	7:00am	GBP	Official Bank Rate	0.50%	0.50%
	7:45am	EUR	Minimum Bid Rate	0.75%	1.00%
	8:15am	USD	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change	101K	133K
	8:30am	USD	Unemployment Claims	385K	386K
	10:00am	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	53.1	53.7
	11:00am	USD	Crude Oil Inventories		-0.1M
Jul 6	3:00am	CHF	Foreign Currency Reserves		303.8B
	3:15am	CHF	CPI m/m	-0.3%	0.0%
	4:30am	GBP	PPI Input m/m	-2.1%	-2.5%
	6:00am	EUR	German Industrial Production m/m	0.3%	-2.2%
	8:30am	USD	Non-Farm Employment Change	92K	69K
	8:30am	USD	Unemployment Rate	8.2%	8.2%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jul 03 08:30 Holland

Jul 03 09:15 Austria

Jul 03 09:30 Belgium

Jul 03 09:30 UK

Jul 03 14:30 UK

Jul 04 09:30 UK

Jul 05 08:30 Spain

Jul 05 08:50 France

Jul 05 15:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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